Global air cargo demand rose 4.4% year over year in August while capacity contracted, according to International Air Transport Association data, tightening the market ahead of the year-end peak shipping season.

Measured in cargo ton-kilometers, international demand grew 5.3%. Global capacity fell 0.1%, pushing the worldwide cargo load factor up two percentage points to 46%.

The regional picture diverged sharply. North American carriers posted the strongest growth, with demand up 6.6% despite a 2.5% capacity reduction. European carriers followed the same pattern: demand up 4.1%, capacity down 3.5%. Asia-Pacific airlines grew demand 4.3% while adding 1.2% capacity — the only major region to expand. Latin American and Caribbean carriers saw demand rise 5.1%, African carriers 3%, and Middle Eastern carriers just 1%, the slowest of any region.

"Strong demand and higher load factors helped airlines to recoup some of the exceptionally high fuel costs," said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA's senior vice president of sustainability and chief economist.

She noted that cargo yields increased month over month for the first time since April, while global goods trade continued to expand.

Trade lane performance varied widely. Asia–North America demand jumped 13.2%, its seventh consecutive month of growth. Europe–North America traffic rose 4.3% and Europe–Asia demand climbed 3.1%. Europe–Middle East cargo traffic fell 12.1%, reflecting continued disruption to Gulf-linked trade routes.

The macroeconomic backdrop remained supportive. Global trade expanded 6% year over year in July, extending a run of annual growth to 33 consecutive months. Global manufacturing activity strengthened in August, with both manufacturing output and new export orders indexes rising.

Fuel remained the principal cost pressure. Jet fuel prices increased 8.3% from July and stood 79.2% higher than a year earlier — a burden that load factor gains only partly offset.

For cargo handlers and ground operations providers, rising demand against constrained capacity raises the operational stakes. Efficient aircraft turnarounds, cargo processing speed and equipment availability will determine how much of the peak-season demand carriers can actually capture with little spare capacity in the system.

With yields already turning upward and load factors at elevated levels, carriers and ground handlers enter the fourth-quarter peak with the tightest supply-demand balance the market has seen in months.