Global airfreight volumes rose 6% year-on-year in September, the third consecutive month of growth, while capacity expanded just 2% — a squeeze that pushed Xeneta's dynamic load factor up two percentage points to 62% and kept spot rates 27% above their September 2025 level.

The Oslo-based analytics platform reports demand grew 6% in August and 5% in July, while capacity flatlined in both months before its 2% September uptick. Global spot rates firmed a further 2% month-on-month, in line with normal end-of-third-quarter seasonality and jet fuel prices running at roughly double pre-conflict levels as Middle East tensions persist.

The more striking shift is in contracting behaviour. Of new air cargo contracts effective from the third quarter of this year, 60% ran three months or less, compared with 25% in the third quarter of 2025 and 47% in the second quarter of this year. Three-month agreements alone took 42% of new contracts, up from 16% a year earlier. The share of 12-month contracts halved from 40% to 25%, and deals longer than 12 months have all but disappeared at 3%.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta's chief airfreight officer, said shippers increasingly want floating mechanisms — a base rate adjusted to market conditions — rather than fixed annual pricing.

"There is a high degree of realism in the way shippers are approaching the market," he said. "There remains a lot of instability and that's making it almost impossible for shippers to make long-term capacity deals without having T&Cs in place to deal with these volatile conditions."

"A one-year fixed rate deal doesn't fit the current conditions," van de Wouw added. "A one-year deal without any adjustment mechanism is becoming more the exception than the rule. If they do exist, not many will survive the upcoming 12 months."

E-commerce divergence

Trade lanes continue to pull apart along regulatory lines. China's low-value and e-commerce exports to Europe fell 40% year-on-year in August, according to Xeneta and Trade and Transport Group analysis of China Customs data — a steeper decline than July's 25% drop — as the EU's €3-per-item customs duty continues to bite following the removal of the de minimis exemption on 1 July. China–US e-commerce exports moved the other way, up 17% year-on-year in August, recovering from the US de minimis removal in 2025, albeit from a lowered base.

The gap between China–US and China–Europe spot rates has widened since the EU duty took effect. Even so, China to Western Europe spot rates rebounded 10% month-on-month in September to $4.26 per kg, reversing declines of 6% in August and 22% in July as outbound China demand built ahead of Golden Week.

Most major corridors firmed in September. Northeast Asia to Europe rose 5% to $4.74 per kg and Northeast Asia to North America gained 5% to $6.03 per kg; Southeast Asia to Europe was up 3%. Transatlantic rates rose in both directions, up 2% westbound and 4% eastbound. Only North America–Southeast Asia (down 1%) and Europe–Southeast Asia (down 2%) softened.

Measured against late February, before the escalation of the Iran war, spot rates into the Middle East remain the most elevated: up 91% from South Asia and 80% from Europe in week 39 (21–27 September). Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia to North America stood 34% and 29% above late-February levels, supported by e-commerce recovery and AI-related shipments. Europe to North America remained the outlier at 20% below late-February levels, though the gap has narrowed from down 25% in August as summer belly capacity gradually exits the market.

Muted peak, ocean wildcard

With global demand tracking toward roughly 4% growth for 2026 — above many industry forecasts made at the start of the year — van de Wouw expects shippers to keep holding out for what they consider a fairer way to buy capacity, benchmarked to the all-in rates airlines charge forwarders rather than a "blunt fuel surcharge."

"October is under way and we are not picking up signals of a strong peak season from our shipper and forwarder community," he said. "What will happen in Q4 is too early to call, but the indicators currently point towards a muted final quarter of the year, as outlined in Xeneta's mid-year outlook."

The wildcard sits on the water. Renewed Red Sea disruption, compounded by port congestion delaying container releases, has pushed Asia–US West Coast ocean rates back towards pandemic-era highs. "When ocean becomes this unreliable and this expensive, some volume moves to air," van de Wouw said. "We are not yet seeing that in the September data, and it doesn't change our view of a muted peak season, but it is the factor we are watching most closely."

Shifting trade policy, including the recent partial easing of China–US tariffs, adds further uncertainty, though the market has so far absorbed such changes without a visible break in trend.