Airbus expects the aviation services market to double to more than $420 billion by 2045, according to its Global Services Forecast for 2026-2045. That expansion, at a 3.8% compound annual growth rate, rests on a global fleet the manufacturer projects will grow to 45,550 aircraft over the same period.

The forecast is a planning document, not a delivery schedule. Still, its arithmetic carries consequences for airlines, lessors and independent MRO providers: more shop visits, more spare parts, more people. Passenger numbers, Airbus says, could also double to 10 billion by 2045.

Cristina Aguilar Grieder, Airbus SVP Customer Services Commercial Aircraft, put the case plainly: "As the global fleet doubles to more than 45,550 aircraft by 2045, we need to get ready." She added: "Airbus is expanding its role as an integral services partner to support our customers across the entire aircraft lifecycle."

What grows, and by how much?

The forecast breaks the services market into six segments, each with its own growth rate through 2045:

• Off-wing maintenance — $217 billion, growing at 3.7% CAGR. The largest segment, driven by an aging global fleet requiring more shop visits. Airbus also expects materials and parts supply chain constraints to persist as parts support and repair demand rises.
• Maintenance operations support — $104 billion, at 4.3% CAGR. This is a new cluster in the forecast, covering inventory management time and quality required to keep aircraft airworthy and reliable.
• On-wing maintenance — $36 billion, at 2.8% CAGR. Heavy checks and light inspections, tracking the worldwide fleet in size.
• Digital and connectivity — $27 billion, at 5.3% CAGR. The fastest-growing segment in the forecast, expected to triple over two decades.
• Modifications and upgrades — $21 billion, at 2.6% CAGR. Cabin retrofits and technology integration, expanding as aircraft fly longer than expected.
• Training — $17 billion, at 3.1% CAGR.

The off-wing figure alone — $217 billion — is more than half the projected total market. For context, that single segment would exceed today's entire services market as sized by this same forecast's baseline.

Where does the workforce come from?

The forecast's most consequential number may be the headcount. Airbus calculates the industry will need roughly 2.44 million additional skilled workers by 2045:

• 730,000 aircraft maintenance technicians
• 660,000 pilots
• 1,050,000 cabin crew

That is 2.44 million people over 20 years, or about 122,000 new hires annually across the three categories. Airbus notes the aircraft maintenance technician shortage already underway, and says the additional demand creates a larger workforce gap that aviation organizations must fill through attracting and retaining talent. The forecast identifies the problem; the solutions remain the industry's to supply.

Why does the aging fleet matter?

The fleet's age profile drives much of the forecast's logic. Older aircraft need more shop visits, which pushes off-wing maintenance demand to double in value. They also stay in service longer than expected, which feeds the modifications and upgrades segment — cabin retrofits and modern technology integration rather than replacement aircraft.

Supply chain constraints complicate the picture. Airbus expects materials and parts shortages to continue as demand for parts support and repair keeps climbing. For MRO providers, that means capacity planning against constrained inputs; for airlines, it means longer potential aircraft-on-ground events.

What role does digital play?

Across every segment, Airbus flags digital solutions and connectivity as widely implemented tools for improving maintenance agility, reducing delays and cancellations, and enabling real-time connectivity. The digital segment itself grows fastest — 5.3% annually, ahead of every other category, with the market expected to triple by 2045.

Grieder framed the value proposition in operational terms: "By integrating predictive operations, fleet modernization and advanced digital solutions, we are helping airlines ensure fleet availability, reliability, safety and long-term operational excellence." Notably, the fastest-growing segment is the one where Airbus sells software and data rather than shop capacity — a coincidence, presumably.

Which regions lead?

Asia will be the fastest-growing services market over the next 20 years, Airbus says. The largest service markets remain Europe & CIS, North America, and China. The regional ranking matters for MRO network planning: capacity built today should sit where the forecast says demand will land.

The verdict

The forecast pairs impressive totals with familiar caveats — "could" and "if current trends persist" appear early and often. What is flying today is a services market growing steadily; what is promised for 2045 assumes two decades without major disruption. The workforce figure, 2.44 million people, is the hardest constraint in the document and the least amenable to software. Airbus, for its part, will watch the decade ahead knowing that its own services ambitions rise and fall with the same fleet numbers it has just published.