Boeing Forecasts 2,930 Freighter Deliveries as Cargo Traffic Doubles by 2045

Boeing expects operators to take delivery of 2,930 freighters over the next two decades, an outlook that projects global air cargo traffic doubling by 2045 and the world's freighter fleet growing from 2,395 aircraft in 2025 to 4,010 — a 67% increase.

The manufacturer published its 2026 World Air Cargo Forecast on October 28, 2026, at The International Air Cargo Association's Air Cargo Forum in Miami. The numbers frame a market split roughly in half between expansion and replacement: about 55% of the deliveries would support fleet growth, while the remaining 45% would replace retiring aircraft.

Where will the aircraft come from?

Conversions dominate the pipeline. Converted passenger jets are expected to account for roughly two-thirds of the 2,930 deliveries, with newly built freighters making up the rest. That balance reflects the current conversion market, which spans narrowbodies such as the Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A321 alongside larger Boeing 767 and Airbus A330 programs.

On the new-build side, operators can order the in-production Boeing 777F, the upcoming Boeing 777-8F and the Airbus A350F. The forecast's two-thirds share for conversions, if it holds, would sustain Boeing's own conversion lines and third-party freighter modifier programs for years — capacity that matters for lessors weighing 767 and A330 feedstock values.

What is driving the demand?

Boeing points to three demand sources over the next two decades: growth in online shopping, shifting manufacturing locations, and shipments of high-value technology, including artificial intelligence hardware.

The AI angle comes with a concrete figure. Boeing cited IATA data showing that more than 70% of AI-related goods moved by air in 2025. Those shipments stack onto a market that has traditionally carried perishables, expensive equipment and other time-sensitive cargo.

The baseline is already at a record. Global air cargo traffic hit an all-time high in 2025, growing nearly 5% from the previous year despite trade disputes and geopolitical disruption, Boeing said. Over the next two decades, the manufacturer expects traffic to increase by an average of 3.5% annually.

"Air cargo's adaptability and speed are strategic advantages enabling reliable transport, dynamic rerouting and critical support for evolving supply chains," said Darren Hulst, Boeing Vice President of Commercial Marketing.

"As global trade patterns change and demand for time-sensitive, high-value goods grows," Hulst added, "dedicated freighters will remain essential to global commerce."

Which regions and operators lead?

Routes serving Asia are expected to lead growth and account for approximately 60% of the global air cargo market. Boeing said carriers are adjusting their networks as production moves between countries and disruptions push shipments onto different routes.

Dedicated freighters will keep carrying more than half of global air cargo traffic. Historically they have transported about 55%, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers, with passenger aircraft carrying the remainder in their belly holds.

Express operators gain ground in the forecast. Boeing projects that companies offering time-definite and express deliveries will carry nearly 25% of global air cargo traffic by 2045 — a shift with direct consequences for widebody freighter ordering at integrators and for the narrowbody conversion feedstock they draw on.

For context on the market's weight, Boeing estimates that goods shipped by air represent less than 1% of global trade by volume but roughly one-third of its value.

How does it compare with Airbus?

Boeing's outlook follows Airbus's latest cargo forecast, released earlier in October 2026, which identified North America as the largest source of freighter aircraft demand over the next 20 years. The two forecasts land weeks apart, giving lessors and conversion shops a consistent signal that freighter demand — split between conversions and new builds — stays firm through 2045.