Optimism among business travel professionals has reached 63% for the next 12 months, according to the Global Business Travel Association's poll for September 2026 — a 22-percentage-point jump from April 2026.

The collapse in pessimism is even sharper. In April, 24% of respondents expected conditions to worsen. That figure now stands at 7%. The corporate travel market has, in five months, moved from a defensive posture to one the GBTA data characterises as confident.

Expectations for activity have improved alongside sentiment. Some 45% of corporate buyers expect business travel volumes to increase in 2026, while 56% expect spending to rise.

The gap between those two numbers matters more than the rebound itself. Spending is growing faster than trip volumes, which shows corporate travel has not escaped the structural inflation and complexity pressing on the wider air transport market. Each trip, on average, costs more — and buyers are planning for that reality.

The market emerging from this period is neither a return to pre-pandemic patterns nor a continuation of the cautious stance adopted during the Iran conflict and the fuel-price shock. It is a selective market. Growth, customer relationships and collaboration justify travel. Cost, geopolitical exposure, safety concerns and internal approval processes increasingly determine what does not happen.

For airlines, airports and corporate travel intermediaries, the opportunity is substantial. But the GBTA figures carry a structural message for suppliers: volume alone is no longer the measure of recovery. Revenue per trip, not trip count, will define how the corporate segment contributes to airline economics in this cycle.

The test ahead is whether the September sentiment holds as 2026 travel budgets are executed — and whether corporate buyers, facing higher unit costs, sustain volume growth at all.