Cathay Pacific has asked the Hong Kong government to publish a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) policy framework that extends beyond 2030, arguing that the territory's existing mandate leaves fuel producers and airlines without the demand visibility needed to commit capital to new capacity.

The carrier's call, reported by the South China Morning Post, targets the gap between Hong Kong's current SAF mandate — which scales toward a 10% SAF uplift requirement by 2030 at Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) — and whatever regulatory regime applies thereafter.

What the existing mandate covers

Hong Kong's SAF mandate, adopted in 2024, requires fuel suppliers serving the airport's hydrant system at Chek Lap Kok to blend rising shares of certified SAF into uplift volumes. The schedule opens at a low single-digit starting percentage in 2025 and rises progressively toward 10% by 2030. The policy was structured as a milestone regime with a defined endpoint, leaving the period beyond 2030 unspecified.

That design mirrors early mandates in the European Union (ReFuelEU Aviation), the United Kingdom (the Jet Zero obligation) and Singapore — each of which sets percentage targets through 2030 before layering additional obligations in the following decade.

Why the post-2030 horizon matters for project finance

SAF project financing typically demands 10-15 years of contracted offtake to underwrite new biorefineries, hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) capacity, alcohol-to-jet plants or power-to-liquid (PtL) facilities. Developers have told industry forums that mandate visibility — not mandate generosity — is the single largest determinant of whether a project reaches final investment decision.

A 2030 endpoint without a defined successor produces what the industry terms a "cliff risk": demand support drops just as the first wave of new capacity is being commissioned. Airlines, in turn, see little visibility on whether SAF premia — currently two-to-five times the price of conventional Jet A-1, depending on feedstock and pathway — will narrow or widen.

Cathay's exposure and its own voluntary target

Cathay Pacific Group is the largest carrier by hub exposure at HKIA, with a mainline passenger fleet in the order of 170 aircraft, a sizeable Cathay Cargo freighter operation, and a network spanning more than 80 destinations across Asia, Australasia, Europe and North America.

The group has separately committed to powering 10% of its flights with SAF by 2030, a corporate voluntary target that tracks the regulatory mandate. Cathay has signed procurement agreements with multiple SAF suppliers covering uplift into the late 2020s.

The book-and-claim question

Cathay's position reportedly centres on three asks: a published 2031-onwards uplift trajectory; clarity on eligibility criteria aligned with the International Civil Aviation Organization's CORSIA framework; and a book-and-claim accounting mechanism letting airlines claim the environmental attributes of SAF procured outside Hong Kong.

Book-and-claim is the contentious point. It permits one airline to claim the climate benefits of SAF purchased by another, decoupling physical and environmental flows. Hong Kong's existing mandate does not address book-and-claim, complicating the carrier's ability to count SAF uplift sourced elsewhere toward its corporate 10% target on long-haul sectors that refuel at other hubs.

What happens next

Hong Kong's Environment and Ecology Bureau, which oversees the mandate, has signalled that the policy will be reviewed. Whether the review produces a codified 2031-2040 trajectory with legally binding uplift shares, or a softer aspirational target without legal force, will determine how the next wave of Asian SAF capacity is financed. For Cathay, the answer shapes fuel cost trajectories through the 2030s and the credibility of net-zero claims attached to its long-haul network.