Central Asia requires an estimated $33 billion in annual infrastructure investment, and the air cargo market serving the region is not shaped to carry what that investment produces, according to Chapman Freeborn, the charter specialist owned by Avia Solutions Group.

Trade flowing through the Middle Corridor could triple by 2030, and growth in mining, energy, infrastructure and manufacturing is generating more heavy, oversized, time-critical and project cargo. Gerhard Coetzee, Vice President Cargo – IMEA at Chapman Freeborn, told the Central Asia Air Cargo Summit that this expansion is exposing a gap between capacity available in the market and capacity the region's industries actually require.

"The important point is that cargo demand is increasingly being generated inside Central Asia – rather than simply passing through it," Coetzee said. "Every one of these sectors creates a different type of cargo requirement, and not all of that cargo can move efficiently through a scheduled network."

Why more connectivity does not equal the right capacity?

Connectivity between Central Asia and major global markets is improving. China is increasingly linked with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and scheduled connections with Europe are developing. Coetzee's argument is that added connectivity does not automatically supply suitable capacity for every shipment. The question is whether the right aircraft is available for the cargo, the route and the deadline.

For project cargo, the constraints are physical and administrative:

• An aircraft may have sufficient payload while the cargo is simply too large for the type.

The required route may not be available at the right time.

Airports may lack the loading equipment, runway capability or specialist handling for the movement.

For large freighters such as the B747F, B777F and AN-124, airport infrastructure and ground handling determine whether a movement is executable at all.

A 70-tonne transformer or 16-metre pipes require equipment and approvals that many regional airports cannot provide. Permits and regulatory approvals add another layer. Winter weather and de-icing affect both timing and operating cost.

"There is an air cargo network, but it isn't necessarily designed around the cargo that these new industries are generating," Coetzee said.

What does the wrong aircraft decision cost?

For mining, energy and infrastructure projects, the stakes extend beyond freight rates. A delayed critical component can hold up installation, construction or production. Coetzee's point is that the cost of downtime can significantly outweigh the difference between scheduled airfreight and charter – the cheaper headline rate becomes irrelevant if the shipment stops a project.

A previous Chapman Freeborn energy project illustrates the planning involved. The company moved urgent manufacturing cargo that included 12-metre manifolds, which required purpose-built transport frames measuring 12 m × 4 m × 2.4 m. The operation was split across two aircraft: a Boeing 767 carried the smaller pieces and an AN-124 carried the oversized manifolds. Both flights met their required timeframes and the cargo reached the project site.

The operation took place outside Central Asia, but Chapman Freeborn presents it as a template for the problem now reaching the region: the solution has to be built around the cargo, not around whatever aircraft capacity happens to be available.

"Aircraft selection isn't about which aircraft is the biggest. It's about selecting the most efficient aircraft for the mission," Coetzee said.

That can mean splitting a movement between aircraft types, or using dedicated charter only for the portion of a shipment the scheduled network cannot absorb.

Is charter a substitute or a complement?

In Chapman Freeborn's framing, charter complements scheduled airfreight rather than replacing it. It becomes relevant when the scheduled network cannot meet a shipment's weight, dimensions, timing, destination or operational complexity.

The larger opportunity, Coetzee argues, lies upstream: identifying those constraints before the cargo is ready to move. For major mining, energy and infrastructure projects, aircraft requirements, airport capability, permits and potential capacity gaps can be addressed at the planning stage rather than once a shipment becomes urgent. That converts charter from a last-minute response into a planned capacity option, and gives shippers time to assess aircraft, routes and handling requirements before a fixed deadline removes those choices.

The test for Central Asia's cargo market, as the region integrates further into global supply chains, will not be how much capacity exists. It will be whether shippers can access the right capacity, in the right place, at the point their project requires it.