The European Union Aviation Safety Agency has placed Saudi Arabian airspace in the same conflict-zone bulletin cycle as Somalia's, extending a high-risk classification that Mogadishu has failed to shed for nine years despite the absence of any confirmed attack on civil aircraft in Somali airspace.

EASA issued a new Conflict Zone Information Bulletin for Saudi Arabia on 30 September 2026, advising operators not to fly within a designated area along the Jeddah Flight Information Region boundary. The advisory runs until 16 November 2026 and cites increased risks of missile and drone attacks, interception activity and falling debris following Houthi strikes on Saudi territory.

The agency issued the Saudi bulletin alongside the periodic extension of its Somalia advisory, revised on 17 April 2026 and valid until 31 October 2026. That bulletin classifies the risk of operations and overflight below Flight Level 260 as HIGH, citing the presence of terrorist organisations with confirmed anti-aviation weaponry and ongoing military operations.

The juxtaposition is awkward for Somalia. Saudi Arabia entered the EASA conflict-zone framework because of a specific, documented escalation in missile and drone attacks. Somalia has been listed since 2017 without a corresponding strike on civil aviation. Airports in Mogadishu and other cities have seen indirect fire incidents and perimeter security breaches, but no civilian aircraft has been hit by hostile fire during the period covered by the current advisory.

Capability, not track record

The gap between Somalia's record and its classification lies in EASA's methodology. The agency assesses threat capability rather than demonstrated intent or success. The Somalia advisory rests on the documented presence of militant groups armed with anti-aviation weaponry, including possible MANPADS. Under that framework, the absence of a successful attack does not change the assessment.

That structural limitation has persisted while Somalia's aviation sector has rebuilt substantially. The Somali Civil Aviation Authority has invested in air traffic management systems, trained local controllers and expanded revenue since regaining full control of its airspace. Air navigation services now generate nearly US$20 million annually, according to SCAA Director General Ahmed Moallin Hassan, with modernisation expected to lift that figure to approximately US$52 million.

Commercial connectivity has grown in parallel. In August 2026, SalamAir launched direct flights between Muscat and Mogadishu, restoring a link with Oman after more than three decades. In September, Jubba Airways resumed international services to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Uganda, Ethiopia and Kenya. Somali Airlines, the national carrier, is preparing to relaunch after a 35-year hiatus with two acquired Airbus A320s.

Mogadishu has also reasserted authority over the Mogadishu Flight Information Region, a jurisdiction recognised by ICAO. The SCAA has demonstrated enforcement capacity, denying overflight permits to Israeli carrier Arkia and issuing warnings to Flydubai and Ethiopian Airlines over visa compliance.

FAA maintains parallel restriction

The US Federal Aviation Administration keeps its own restriction in place. Special Federal Aviation Regulation No. 107 prohibits US air carriers and commercial operators from flying below FL260 in Somali airspace. Last extended in December 2022, the regulation runs until 7 January 2027. The FAA permits overflights above FL260 and allows overwater operations below that level for climbs out of and descents into Djibouti Ambouli International Airport, subject to conditions.

The FL260 floor carries direct cost consequences for carriers serving the region, forcing fuel-burn penalties on climbs and descents and constraining route planning, even as Turkish Airlines, Qatar Airways and Ethiopian Airlines continue to operate successfully through the airspace.

A process under question

The April 2026 revision of the Somalia advisory explicitly states that no changes were made to its content. The advisory has been extended repeatedly since 2017 without substantive review, which suggests a process that is administrative rather than analytical.

Somalia's aviation authorities have not publicly articulated a strategy for challenging the classification. There has been no visible diplomatic campaign to present EASA with evidence of reduced threat levels, no engagement with EU member states on the methodology, and no coordinated effort with the carriers that operate in Somali airspace to advocate for reclassification.

Infrastructure investment and revenue growth alone cannot shift a classification grounded in threat capability. Somalia's path off the list runs through an evidence-based case that the threat environment has changed, presented to EASA and EU member states. Until that case is made and the agency conducts a genuine reassessment, the Mogadishu FIR will remain grouped with active conflict zones in each bulletin cycle.