IATA's latest white paper on dangerous goods reports that 81% of occurrences logged with the association in the first half of 2025 involved undeclared or hidden consignments, underscoring a widening gap between e-commerce growth and the data available to airlines and freight forwarders.

The figure is drawn from reports submitted to IATA by carriers, ground handlers and regulators. It does not represent the total volume of undeclared shipments moving through the air cargo system. IATA argues the proportion is high enough to demand intervention earlier in the supply chain, before parcels reach freight terminals.

Why does the data problem matter?

The white paper highlights a structural weakness: airlines and forwarders cannot reliably screen parcels for undeclared lithium batteries and other hazardous items because they do not receive accurate product information from sellers. An e-commerce specialist quoted in coverage of the paper warned that detection capacity at the airline stage is fundamentally limited by the quality of data fed into the booking.

IATA's proposed response is to push dangerous goods verification upstream — into platforms, marketplaces and shippers — rather than rely on acceptance checks at airline cargo terminals. The association has not yet specified which regulatory or commercial mechanisms would compel shippers to disclose battery classifications and watt-hour ratings.

What the 81% figure actually captures

The 81% statistic is not a prevalence rate across all e-commerce parcels. It reflects the share of dangerous goods reports that were filed because an undeclared or concealed item was discovered — typically after a thermal event, a flight crew observation, or a routine inspection. A large denominator of undetected shipments remains invisible in the data.

That distinction matters for regulators reviewing the paper's recommendations. Performance claims by IATA on detection rates should be read against the fact that the industry still lacks a complete accounting of what enters the air cargo system.

What it costs when screening fails

An undeclared lithium battery that ignites in flight can force an emergency diversion, costing an operator several hundred thousand dollars in fuel, landing fees and passenger rebooking. Diversion costs rise sharply on long-haul sectors where suitable diversion airports are scarce.

Forwarders and ground-handlers also bear costs when regulators mandate enhanced screening. Investment in X-ray, computed tomography and trained dangerous goods staff is rising across major hubs, but IATA's paper implicitly questions whether terminal-side detection can scale to match parcel volumes forecast through 2030.

What changes for airlines and forwarders?

For now, no new mandatory requirement has been issued. Airlines and freight forwarders will continue to rely on acceptance checks, supplemented by IATA's Lithium Battery Shipping Guidelines and the ICAO Technical Instructions. IATA's paper is a position document, not a regulatory change.

Forwarders with their own compliance teams may respond by tightening customer onboarding. Smaller e-commerce sellers face the prospect of new disclosure obligations if the industry adopts upstream verification. Battery manufacturers and retailers — identified in the paper as the parties holding the most accurate product data — are the likely targets for any future reporting requirement.

The IATA position will now feed into ongoing work at the ICAO Dangerous Goods Panel and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency's review of e-commerce safety rules. A decision on whether to mandate shipper-level disclosure is expected within the next 18 months.