Taiwanese forwarder Dimerco expects persistent ocean congestion and clearer tariff direction to push more cargo from ocean to air freight as the fourth quarter progresses, tightening capacity on key lanes out of Asia.

The forecast comes in Dimerco's October Asia Pacific Freight Report, which identifies two forces converging on air freight markets: shippers abandoning congested ocean services, and China-US shipments currently held back by tariff uncertainty that will release once policy becomes clearer.

"Dimerco expects clearer tariff direction and persistent ocean congestion to potentially push more cargo into air as Q4 progresses," the company said.

Because of time constraints, some of that held-back cargo originally booked for ocean transport may move by air instead — a modal shift that would tighten air capacity further during an already extended peak.

Why is the peak season lasting longer?

Ocean shipping has faced sustained supply chain disruption while demand has not slowed as quickly as expected, Dimerco said. The result: the fourth-quarter peak has been prolonged, and shippers under time pressure are looking at air alternatives.

Kathy Liu, vice president of global sales and marketing at Dimerco Express Group, said the current lull in bookings will not last. "Bookings look quiet right now, but that's the calm before the door opens. Once held-back China-US cargo releases and ocean congestion pushes shippers into air, the space will face some constraints," Liu said.

Which markets are already tight?

AI, semiconductor and year-end retail demand are keeping capacity constrained at many origins, with Northeast Asia the standout region.

• Taiwan: strong demand for AI servers, semiconductors, high-performance computing equipment and electronic components is putting upward pressure on rates to the US and on intra-Asia lanes.
• South Korea: conditions tightened around the Chuseok harvest festival, with some Southeast Asia services from Incheon requiring bookings up to two weeks in advance.
• China: pre-holiday and e-commerce activity is tightening some regional routes, while US and Europe capacity remains more balanced at several origins.
• Southeast Asia, India, Australia: US-bound capacity remains tight from most origins. Singapore faces backlogs, Thailand is dealing with capacity reductions and flooding-related delays at Bangkok, and India is entering its festive season with both air and ocean space constrained to Europe and the US.

What does this mean for capacity and rates?

For airlines and freighter operators, the combination of extended ocean disruption, deferred China-US volumes and structurally strong technology demand out of Taiwan suggests tightening supply-demand dynamics on transpacific and intra-Asia lanes through the remainder of the quarter.

The pace of the shift depends on the variable Dimerco itself flags as unresolved: tariff clarity. Until Washington's trade policy direction firms up, the held-back China-US volumes stay on the sidelines — and the forwarder's capacity-squeeze scenario remains a forecast rather than a market reality.