Riyadh cargo capacity remains at 6% of normal after airport closure

King Khalid International Airport (RUH) is running outbound air-cargo capacity at about 6% of normal after losing an estimated 1,500 tonnes a day, Aevean said.

Aevean linked the loss to Houthi attacks that closed the airport on 10 October. Airlines suspended operations at the Saudi hub.

Reuters reported that the airport partly reopened on Sunday, although the Yemen-based Houthis threatened further attacks and described the site as a “military target.” Flight-monitoring data showed little aviation traffic.

Maarten Wormer, Aevean’s head of consulting, said: “Riyadh has lost around 1,500 tonnes of outbound air cargo capacity a day, and so far, very little of it has come back.”

He expects a slow recovery rather than a quick one because attacks continue and foreign carriers have extended their suspensions.

The reopening announcement therefore marks a limited return, not restored network service. Cargo volumes remain the more demanding test for airlines and forwarders using Riyadh as a hub.

The capacity math

Aevean’s headline estimate of 1,500 tonnes represents the approximate outbound capacity unavailable each day. The consultancy published estimated daily losses for five destinations:

• Hong Kong: 115 tonnes
• Doha: 139 tonnes
• Dubai: 121 tonnes
• Dhaka: 112 tonnes
• Cairo: 98 tonnes

Those five figures total 585 tonnes a day, about 39% of the headline estimate. The remaining 915 tonnes were not assigned to a destination in the published breakdown, so the route data do not explain the full loss.

Aevean says the capacity loss went mainly to Asia, Gulf hubs and South Asia. Gulf hubs account for one quarter of the loss, according to the consultancy.

These are capacity estimates rather than confirmed shipment counts. The report gives no measurement method, and it does not show whether cargo was displaced to other airports or cancelled outright.

A reopening that has not become recovery

Aevean’s chronology says restrictions accompanied the airport’s opening on 18 October. A brief cargo spike followed on 20 October. Volumes then fell well below that peak, possibly to one-third or one-quarter of the spike level.

That wording matters. It describes a sharp, short-lived increase rather than a sustained return to service, and the airport’s reported 6% capacity level remains far below normal operations.

Reuters’s account of the Sunday reopening did not specify which airport facilities reopened. The report also names no affected airlines, aircraft types, cargo-terminal conditions or responsible regulator.

Without flight schedules and cargo-handling data, the 6% figure cannot be independently reconciled. The absence of carrier names also prevents assessment of which suspended services could return first.

What does this change for cargo operators?

The direct answer is limited outbound lift from Riyadh and fewer reliable options on the affected Asian, Gulf and South Asian lanes. The immediate network constraint is the loss of roughly 1,500 tonnes of daily capacity.

Carriers and forwarders face an uncertain recovery timetable. Aevean expects a slow restoration because attacks continue and foreign carriers have extended suspensions rather than committed to fixed restart dates.

The cost consequence cannot be quantified from the report. It provides no dollar estimate, freight-rate change, surcharge or cost of rerouting displaced cargo. Any claim about the scale of price increases would therefore exceed the available evidence.

The network effect is clearer. Hong Kong, Doha, Dubai, Dhaka and Cairo each lost between 98 and 139 tonnes of estimated daily capacity. Monitoring data showing little aviation traffic suggest that the partial reopening has not yet produced a broad operational recovery.

Practical buyers should therefore treat Riyadh’s nominal reopening as constrained capacity until scheduled services and cargo volumes recover. That is a monitoring conclusion, not a forecast of freight rates or available replacement capacity.

The recovery test

Aevean expects a slow recovery, but the source gives no restoration date and no commitment from the carriers whose suspensions it cites. The next verification point is sustained cargo uplift rather than another partial-reopening announcement.

Flight activity and daily tonnage will show whether the 20 October spike developed into a durable service recovery. The current evidence shows the opposite: traffic remains thin and most of the lost capacity has not returned.

Unless attacks subside and foreign carriers reverse their suspensions, Aevean expects a slow return; sustained cargo tonnage and flight activity will matter more than another reopening headline.