Ryanair Half-Year Profit Falls 15% as Fuel Bill Looms

Ryanair's profit after tax fell 15% to €2.15 billion ($2.41 billion) in the first half of its 2026-27 financial year, the carrier reported on November 2, 2026, despite carrying 6% more passengers. The Irish low-cost operator attributes the squeeze to jet-fuel prices inflated by the Middle East conflict, and it expects the pressure to persist well into 2027.

Revenue rose 3% to €10.08 billion ($11.3 billion) against €9.82 billion a year earlier, while average fares dropped 4%. The gap between rising volume and falling profit is the mechanism of the story: more passengers, flying at lower fares, on fuel that costs materially more than the airline's hedges anticipated.

How exposed is Ryanair's fuel book?

The airline has hedged (locked in a fixed price in advance for) 80% of its current financial year's jet fuel at $67 per barrel. For financial year 2028, cover extends to 25% at approximately $95 per barrel — extended, it says, on recent price dips.

"Ryanair's FY27 jet-fuel prices have widened our cost advantage over other EU competitors and helped insulate current year earnings," CEO Michael O'Leary said. "While oil prices remain volatile, the Group has extended FY28 hedge cover on recent price dips to 25% at c.$95/bbl."

The unhedged remainder is the exposure. Ryanair says that unless the Middle East conflict resolves swiftly, jet-fuel prices will stay elevated well into 2027. A spokesperson quantified the forward risk: even with materially higher European short-haul airfares and competitor capacity reductions, fares are "still unlikely to provide a full offset for an estimated c.€2bn increase (based on current forward prices) in our FY28 fuel bill."

What does this change for costs and crews?

To close that gap, Ryanair is reviewing several levers beyond pricing:

• Airport charge negotiations, timed to the arrival of Boeing 737 MAX 10s from spring 2027;
• Renegotiating mature labour agreements, which may require temporary pay freezes;
• Lower crewing ratios;
• Greater use of AI for operational and back-office productivity.

The airport talks are the capacity dimension. As the larger MAX 10 (Boeing's longest-range 737 variant, seating around 230 in Ryanair configuration) begins arriving, the airline gains leverage to renegotiate terms with airports competing for that growth — a pattern it has used before.

Traffic, outlook and the supply constraint

For the full financial year, Ryanair expects traffic to grow 3% to 214 million passengers. It declined to give profit guidance, citing normal seasonal blindness. "The final FY27 PAT remains highly sensitive to adverse external developments, incl. conflict escalation in the Middle East and Ukraine, the price of our 20% unhedged jet-fuel, macro-economic shocks and the impact of European ATC disruptions (strikes & mismanagement)," the spokesperson said, adding: "As is normal at this time of year, we have zero Q4 visibility."

Ryanair expects European short-haul capacity to remain constrained into the early 2030s. It bases that view on Airbus and Boeing remaining "well behind on their production targets" and on continuing Pratt & Whitney engine delays, which have grounded parts of the A320neo fleet across the continent. Constrained supply supports fares; it also caps how fast any carrier, including Ryanair, can grow.

Despite the pressures, the airline maintains that it is better placed than competitors to weather the downturn and still targets "profitable growth to over 300m passengers p.a. by FY34" — roughly a 40% increase on the current-year projection.

The binding question for the next two results seasons is arithmetic, not sentiment: whether fare increases in a supply-constrained market, plus pay restraint and airport renegotiations, can absorb a €2 billion fuel increase before the FY28 hedge book matures.