Ryanair Group CEO Michael O'Leary told reporters in Brussels on October 8, 2026 that jet fuel prices could remain roughly 50% above pre-Iran-war levels for another 12 to 18 months — the first time a major European airline chief has publicly floated 2028 as a horizon for fare pain to ease.

Speaking at an Airlines for Europe (A4E) press conference, O'Leary said carriers face a harder cost squeeze in 2027 because hedge books covering that year are far thinner than 2026's. The 2026 fuel spike has squeezed airline margins all year, even with hedges in place, and O'Leary expects that pressure to intensify in 2027.

"We are all facing an enormous cost challenge next year," he said, according to a Reuters report.

What changed in the fuel outlook?

O'Leary's comments extend the timeline for elevated fuel costs. The Iran war — referenced in his remarks as the trigger — has lifted jet fuel costs about 50% above their pre-conflict level, he said.

Key details from his briefing:

• Current jet fuel cost: ~50% above pre-Iran-war baseline
• Expected duration: 12 to 18 months at current level
• 2027 hedge coverage: substantially lower than 2026
• O'Leary's framing: a "full-blown crisis"

Airlines carried heavier hedge positions through 2026, cushioning margins for much of the year. That protection falls away for 2027, which is why O'Leary singled out next year as the bigger cost challenge.

How much could fares rise?

O'Leary has previously said fares could climb as much as 20% next summer. On October 8 he reinforced that airlines cannot absorb the fuel increase without passing it through to passengers. He described the situation as a "full-blown crisis" and said ticket prices would have to move.

Reuters reported that several carriers represented at the conference have already begun raising ticket prices to cover fuel costs.

Is jet fuel supply at risk?

European analysts have warned of a possible jet fuel shortage into the fourth quarter, but O'Leary pushed back on that assessment. He said he sees no supply threat this winter or through next summer. The problem is price, not availability, he told reporters.

That distinction matters for network planners: refineries and seaborne imports appear to be flowing, but the bill is what will force ticket increases across short-haul European networks, where fuel represents a larger share of unit cost than on long-haul.

Who else spoke in Brussels?

Chief executives from Europe's largest airline groups attended the A4E event, including:

• Air France-KLM
• Lufthansa Group
• easyJet
• Aer Lingus
• IAG, parent of British Airways

Their presence signals industry-wide alignment on the fuel message, with no carrier publicly disputing O'Leary's cost outlook from the Brussels podium.

What did the CEOs say about cockpit safety?

The same press conference turned to the recent flydubai incident, in which a co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain in what investigators suspect was an attempt to crash the aircraft. According to Reuters, the co-pilot told UAE interrogators he had planned the attack before joining the Dubai state-owned carrier.

Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr said no airline can rule out every such incident. He added that industry safety standards remain very high and that pilot mental health screening is already robust.

The executives pointed to the 2015 Germanwings disaster — when co-pilot Andreas Lubitz locked the captain out of the cockpit and flew an Airbus A320 into the French Alps on March 24, 2015, killing all 150 people on board — as the last comparable case.

What to watch next?

• Q4 2026 airline earnings: how much of 2027 fuel is hedged, and at what strike
• Forward ticket pricing at Ryanair and competitors into summer 2027
• Any escalation in the Iran conflict that could push the 50% fuel premium higher
• A4E and IATA follow-up statements on coordinated fare messaging

O'Leary's warning frames a two-year runway of elevated fares unless crude prices and refining margins ease materially — a contingency he did not appear to be betting on.