SkyGrid, MIT Lincoln Laboratory extend AAM forecast work

SkyGrid and MIT Lincoln Laboratory will run a second phase of their advanced air mobility (AAM) weather-forecasting agreement through July 2027, extending a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement that began in October 2025.

The work shifts from evaluating Lincoln Laboratory’s high-resolution forecast (HRF) models to maturing them for possible operational use. SkyGrid describes itself as an AAM third-party service provider. The project aims to support safe, scalable operations.

The announcement names no launch operator, aircraft type, air carrier or commercial route. It also gives no certification milestone. The program remains research intended to produce inputs for future regulatory and operating decisions.

What has the first phase established?

The first phase tested Lincoln Laboratory’s HRF data inside SkyGrid’s AAM simulation environment. The team examined whether higher-fidelity, higher-resolution forecasts improved operational planning for safety and efficiency.

That work produced an early framework for AAM-specific weather requirements, which the partners presented at the AIAA AVIATION 2026 Forum. Calling it an early framework matters. The announcement does not say regulators have adopted it as a rule, standard or operating criterion.

SkyGrid stated in a 12 November press release: “Forecasts built for conventional aviation typically cannot resolve low-altitude conditions, lacking the resolution needed to capture the rapid, small-scale dynamics of weather phenomena near the planetary boundary layer.”

That is the technical premise for the new work, not proof of performance gains. The release provides no forecast error rates, comparison tables, simulated flight hours or measured improvement in safety and efficiency.

The simulation work can test how weather information affects planning under controlled scenarios. It cannot establish performance across live routes, seasons, terrain or aircraft types. Those tests still lie ahead, according to the announced program.

What will the second phase test?

The team will upgrade the models to improve their representation of low-altitude weather. It will evaluate forecasts with sensors at operational sites across the United States. The partners will also develop SkyGrid’s simulation environment and decision-support tools to represent AAM operations more realistically.

Forecast inputs will combine high-resolution terrain with observations from:

• Surface weather stations
• Aircraft reports
• Radiosondes
• NEXRAD radar
• LIDAR

The announcement does not specify the number or locations of test sites, sensor density, operating dates by site or validation methods. It also gives no target forecast resolution, required lead time or accuracy threshold against which the upgraded models must perform.

The HRF hazard products will expand to cover:

• Turbulence
• Three-dimensional visibility
• Icing
• Precipitation

The project will also introduce probabilistic forecasting, moving beyond a single deterministic forecast. The release does not define probability bands, confidence thresholds or calibration criteria. Those omissions leave operators without a measurable standard for judging the outputs.

Jordan Cohen, SkyGrid’s R&D lead, said the team will be “stress-testing the models against more hazards, in more regions and with real-world uncertainties.” That describes the intended test design. It does not demonstrate that the models now forecast those hazards reliably.

What does this change for advanced air mobility operators?

Today, it changes the research timetable rather than the operating rulebook. The announcement identifies no certified forecast, approved minimum weather threshold or dispatch requirement. Its proposed weather requirements remain intended to inform regulators, service providers and operators as the industry scales.

If the second phase produces repeatable forecast gains, service providers could use the outputs in operational and network planning. That could affect weather-related disruption, usable capacity and operating cost. The announcement quantifies none of those effects, so it does not yet support a business case for operators.

The immediate deliverable by July 2027 is evidence: improved low-altitude forecasts, broader hazard coverage and probabilistic outputs tested against terrain, sensors and real-world uncertainty. Whether that evidence becomes an operating standard, a procurement requirement or a routine part of AAM planning will depend on later validation and regulatory decisions that the announcement does not specify.

For operators, the practical test is whether July 2027 produces repeatable forecast gains; until then, this remains a development track rather than permission to rely on it in service.