Air cargo demand climbs 4.4% in August as yields post first monthly gain since April

Global air cargo demand rose 4.4% year-on-year in August, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), with growth reaching every carrier region for the first time in recent memory, according to IATA data released this week.

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), fell 0.1% against August 2025. Cuts by North American and European carriers outweighed additional lift elsewhere, pushing the global cargo load factor up 2.0 percentage points to 46.0%.

"Growth reached every carrier region but remained concentrated in North America and Asia Pacific," IATA stated.

What did the regional carriers post?

• North American carriers: demand +6.6% YoY; capacity −2.5% — strongest of all regions.
• Latin American & Caribbean: demand +5.1%; capacity +3.3%.
• Asia-Pacific: demand +4.3%; capacity +1.2%.
• European carriers: demand +4.1%; capacity −3.5%.
• African airlines: demand +3%; capacity +14%.
• Middle Eastern carriers: demand +1% — weakest of all regions; capacity +3.3%.

Why did yields turn?

IATA's senior vice president sustainability and chief economist Marie Owens Thomsen tied the inflection to cost recovery. "Air cargo demand rose 4.4% year-on-year in August with all regions reporting growth even as capacity was trimmed by 0.1%," she said. "Strong demand and higher load factors helped airlines to recoup some of the exceptionally high fuel costs. Yields rose month-on-month for the first time since April, while global goods trade growth continues. Both are positive signs as the year-end peak season comes into view."

The reference to high fuel costs is concrete. Jet fuel prices climbed 8.3% month-on-month in August and stood 79.2% higher than a year earlier, squeezing airline cost bases and amplifying the value of every extra tonne lifted.

Which trade lanes led?

IATA ranked the strongest corridors as follows: Asia–North America first, followed by within-Asia, Europe–North America, and Europe–Asia. Gulf-linked corridors continued to underperform, with IATA attributing disruption to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

What do the macro indicators say?

Global trade expanded 6.0% year-on-year in July, extending the run of consecutive monthly expansions to 33 months. Manufacturing indicators pointed in the same direction:

• Global Manufacturing Output PMI: 53.0, up 0.3 points.
• New Export Orders Index: 51.4, up 1.4 points.

Both readings remained in expansion territory and historically correlate with sustained air cargo demand.

How should carriers read the setup into year-end?

The combination of universal regional growth, capacity discipline in the Atlantic pair, and rebounding yields offers carriers a constructive runway into the peak season. The open question is whether jet fuel — still nearly 80% above prior-year levels — will compress the margin improvement before the fourth-quarter demand surge materialises, particularly for African and Middle Eastern operators whose combined capacity expanded roughly 17% even as demand lagged other regions.