Belly Cargo Carried 56% of Air Freight in 2025, IATA Data Shows

More than half of every tonne of air freight moved in 2025 — 56% — travelled in the bellies of passenger aircraft rather than in dedicated freighters. That figure, drawn from IATA's full-year data, captures both record demand and a structural vulnerability the industry has not resolved.

Global air cargo demand rose 3.4% year-on-year in 2025 to a record volume, IATA reports. Yields fell 1.5%, the smallest annual decline in three years, and remain 37.2% above 2019 levels — evidence of a market normalising from pandemic highs rather than deteriorating. For 2026, IATA forecasts growth moderating to 2.4%.

The growth was unevenly distributed:

• Asia-Pacific airlines led all regions, up 8.4% year-on-year
• African carriers grew 6.0%
• European carriers grew 2.9%
• Latin American and Caribbean carriers grew 2.3%
• Middle Eastern carriers managed just 0.3%
• North American carriers recorded the only regional decline, down 1.3%

Why does the 56% share matter?

The reliance on belly capacity is a function of how the widebody freighter fleet has stalled. The narrowbody cargo market has been oversupplied since 2023, while the widebody market faces a persistent capacity shortage, according to Air Cargo News and IBA (an aviation asset valuation and advisory firm).

Belly space follows passenger route decisions, utilisation schedules and airline commercial priorities — not freight demand. When passenger networks contract, as they did sharply in 2020, belly capacity vanishes with them. The dedicated freighter fleet is nowhere near large enough to absorb the shortfall.

What does this change for shippers and airlines? It means more than half of global air freight lift depends on capacity the freight industry does not directly control, and cannot quickly replace.

A freighter pipeline running years late

Boeing's 777-8F, the most significant new widebody freighter in development, has had its launch date pushed from 2027 to 2028 at the earliest, Air Cargo News reports. Widebody freighter manufacturing supply chains remain unstable, with disruption expected to continue for several years.

The conversion market offers little near-term relief. Boeing's final 777-300ER — an aircraft widely converted to freighter configuration — left the production line in April 2022, tightening the pipeline of future conversion candidates, IBA notes.

Mammoth Freighters completed the initial test flight of its 777-200LRMF prototype in May 2025, according to Air Cargo News and IBA, but the programme still awaits its supplemental type certificate (the regulatory approval required to modify an existing aircraft type). Until it is granted, the aircraft cannot enter commercial service.

An ageing fleet, concentrated demand

The dedicated freighter fleet is ageing. Air Cargo News reports its average age is significantly higher than that of the passenger fleet, and the gap is widening. Older aircraft carry higher maintenance costs, greater exposure to airworthiness directives, and the risk of retirements outpacing replacements.

At the premium end, demand for specific types is rising sharply. IBA reports that AI-related and semiconductor shipments are driving demand for the 747-400F and 747-8F, specifically because of their nose-loading capability, which allows outsized cargo that cannot fit through a standard side cargo door. Concentration of that demand in ageing 747 variants underlines how thin suitable widebody freighter supply has become.

The North America signal

The 1.3% North American decline coincides directly with trade policy shifts that IATA identifies as redirecting cargo away from Asia–North America lanes toward Asia–Europe, driven by US tariff policy and the removal of the US de minimis exemption for low-value parcels. If those conditions persist, transpacific belly capacity will sit partly underutilised for freight even as the global widebody freighter fleet remains short. The mismatch between where belly capacity sits and where demand grows is structural, not temporary.

The 56% belly share reflects a dedicated fleet that has not kept pace with demand, a manufacturing pipeline running years behind, and a conversion market delayed by regulation and supply chains. If passenger networks shrink — through economic shock, geopolitical disruption or a demand shift — that belly share contracts with them, and no standby freighter fleet exists to absorb it.