The Loadstar reports that air cargo demand has eased in line with expectations, while freight rates have proven more resilient than the volume picture would suggest. The split between soft tonnage and firmer yields is the defining feature of the current market, with operators watching closely for whether pricing will follow volumes lower or hold the line into the next cycle.

What drove the expected dip in volumes?

Demand softening had been telegraphed. Carriers, forwarders, and shippers had already flagged a slowdown heading into the period, citing softer e-commerce flows, inventory adjustments among major retailers, and weaker exports out of key manufacturing hubs. Air freight typically tracks global goods trade with a short lag, and the leading indicators had been pointing lower before the headline demand figures turned.

Why are rates not collapsing with volumes?

What has caught some observers off guard is the behavior of rates. With belly capacity from passenger widebodies returning as airlines add flights, and dedicated freighters still in service, the supply side of the equation has been expanding. By the textbook logic, more capacity chasing weaker demand should push pricing toward the floor. Instead, rates have held within a tighter band than the volume decline would imply.

Several mechanisms can explain the rate stickiness:

• Contract pricing locks in a large share of air cargo revenue on a 12-month horizon, smoothing the spot rate transmission.
• Fuel surcharges and security-related add-ons can move independently of base rates, distorting the headline yield comparison.
• The cargo mix on each flight — heavier, lower-yielding general freight versus lighter, higher-yielding express and pharmaceutical shipments — can shift without changing the published rate per kilogram.

What does the divergence mean for carriers and forwarders?

For combination carriers, the implications matter. Belly capacity rises and falls with passenger network decisions, and airline cargo divisions typically take what the passenger schedule gives them. Dedicated freighter operators face a different calculus: they can park aircraft when yields compress and return them when the market turns. Current rate resilience, if it persists, makes parking less attractive and supports continued freighter utilization.

Forwarders sit in the middle. Their margins depend on the spread between what they charge shippers and what they pay carriers. A widening gap between softer demand and firmer rates suggests forwarders may be absorbing some of the volume weakness on the buy side while holding the line on sell rates — a position that works until one side breaks.

Is the market stabilizing or about to crack?

The Loadstar's framing of "resilience" implies the market is closer to stabilization than collapse. That distinction matters for airline cargo chiefs preparing guidance and for lessors weighing freighter placement. If rates hold while volumes recover, the next quarter could see a sharper revenue rebound than the demand line alone would predict. If volumes keep slipping and capacity additions outpace them, the rate floor will eventually give way.

For now, the watch items are familiar: ocean freight rates and schedule reliability, which set the modal ceiling for air; e-commerce tonnage, which has been a swing factor for two years; and the pace of passenger widebody return, which governs belly supply. Until one of those levers moves decisively, the market prints the pattern The Loadstar describes — demand soft, rates firmer than they should be.