Global air cargo chargeable weight rose for a fourth consecutive week in week 38 (14–20 September), climbing 2 percent week on week and 8 percent against the same period a year earlier, according to WorldACD Market Data's weekly trends report. Tonnages, rates and capacity were all higher than year-earlier levels across every major region.

The weekly gain was driven almost entirely by a 14 percent rebound in volumes originating in North America, which restored that market to levels seen before the customary dip around Labor Day in the United States and Canada on 7 September. Two regions moved the other way: Middle East and South Asia origins fell 4 percent week on week, and Africa declined by the same margin.

Asia Pacific origins led annual growth with an 11 percent year-on-year increase in tonnages, followed by North America at 8 percent, Europe at 6 percent, and gains of 2 percent each from Middle East and South Asia and from Central and South America.

Rates stay elevated

Average worldwide rates on a full-market mix of spot and contract rates were broadly stable week on week. Africa posted the largest weekly move, with full-market rates up 6 percent to an average of $2.47 per kilo. Full-market worldwide rates stood 24 percent above year-earlier levels, with Middle East and South Asia up 49 percent, Europe and Africa each up 26 percent, and Asia Pacific up 21 percent.

Worldwide spot rates held flat week on week at $3.45 per kilo despite another increase in jet fuel prices. Africa recorded the biggest weekly spot gain at 7 percent, with Asia Pacific and Europe each up 1 percent, partly offset by declines from North America (down 4 percent), Middle East and South Asia (down 2 percent) and Central and South America (down 1 percent).

The $3.45 worldwide spot average was 33 percent higher year on year, with every region posting annual increases of at least 25 percent except Central and South America, which rose 5 percent. Middle East and South Asia led at 52 percent, followed by North America at 34 percent, Africa at 31 percent, Asia Pacific at 30 percent and Europe at 29 percent.

Middle East and South Asia volumes soften

The regional decline in Middle East and South Asia tonnages concentrated on US-bound traffic, which fell 5 percent week on week. India dropped 5 percent, Bangladesh 17 percent and Sri Lanka 10 percent, while volumes from some Gulf markets remained volatile. Traffic from the region to Europe was steadier, up 1 percent week on week, as increases from Bangladesh offset a 14 percent weekly decline from Sri Lanka.

Capacity picture

Worldwide capacity rose about 1 percent week on week, with freighter capacity up nearly 2 percent and passenger belly capacity slipping slightly. Total international capacity was up 4 percent year on year, led by a 5 percent increase in freighter capacity.

Measured against week 7 — just before the start of the US-Iran conflict — worldwide capacity in week 38 was up an average of 4 percent. Capacity to and from Europe rose 19 percent over that span, while capacity to and from Middle East and South Asia fell 9 percent and Asia Pacific capacity was about 2 percent lower. Within the Middle East and South Asia decline, capacity to and from South Asia was about 3 percent higher, whereas Gulf Area capacity remained down almost 17 percent since the conflict began. Gulf capacity slipped about 1 percent in week 38 from the prior week.

Asia Pacific demand mixed ahead of Golden Week

Traffic from China and Hong Kong to Europe had been recovering gradually over the previous four weeks after two months of steep declines that followed the removal of EU de minimis exemptions on 1 July. Volumes slipped back in week 38, including a 5 percent weekly drop from Hong Kong. Against a year earlier, tonnages from Hong Kong to Europe were down 29 percent, while mainland China volumes were broadly stable with a 2 percent annual increase.

Spot rates from Asia Pacific origins to Europe remained firm, with weekly gains from mainland China (up 4 percent), Hong Kong (up 1 percent), Japan (up 3 percent) and South Korea (up 2 percent). Rates from Vietnam rose 8 percent week on week for a second consecutive week to $4.89 per kilo. Average spot rates to Europe from Asia Pacific origins overall climbed 2 percent to $4.72 per kilo.

Transpacific demand stayed strong: volumes from Asia Pacific origins to the United States were up 13 percent year on year, led by South Korea at 54 percent, Japan at 47 percent, China at 14 percent, Thailand at 12 percent, Singapore at 10 percent and Indonesia at 19 percent. Average spot rates on the lane were broadly stable week on week at $6.75 per kilo — about 40 percent higher than a year earlier, including annual increases of 62 percent from Singapore and 50 percent from Japan.

Compressed freight window

China's Mid-Autumn Festival from 25 to 27 September and the National Day Golden Week from 1 to 7 October fall in close succession, compressing production, export handovers and freight planning into a narrow window before October, freight forwarders reported. Air freight typically serves as the pressure-release option when ocean schedules slip, pushing urgent shipments, high-value goods and e-commerce traffic to compete for limited uplift before and immediately after Golden Week.

Forwarders said general cargo demand from North China is rising as shippers move cargo out ahead of the holidays, though e-commerce volumes remain relatively soft. New charter capacity entering the market is broadly absorbing the rate pressure that stronger general cargo volumes would otherwise create, keeping rates steady. From Southern China, transpacific demand is rising but available capacity is keeping rates stable, and e-commerce demand there also remains low.

The Chinese holidays may lift transpacific activity in the coming days, while Asia Pacific westbound demand to Europe remains soft, keeping rates relatively subdued on that lane.