Airbus Sees Global Freighter Fleet Growing 46% to 3,460 by 2045

Airbus expects the worldwide dedicated freighter fleet to grow 46% by 2045, from 2,360 to 3,460 aircraft, with North America driving demand ahead of Asia-Pacific. The European manufacturer published those figures in its latest Cargo Global Market Forecast on October 21, 2026, covering the period from 2026 to 2045. It released the outlook at the Cargo Facts Symposium 2026.

The fleet math is straightforward. Global operators will need around 2,670 freighters over two decades: roughly 1,580 units to replace older models and another 1,090 to accommodate growth. Of that total, 970 aircraft will be newly built and 1,700 will be conversions — aircraft converted from passenger to cargo configuration.

Where will the demand come from?

North America tops the regional ranking with 925 freighters needed through 2045. Asia-Pacific follows closely at 850 units. Together the two regions account for about two-thirds of projected global demand.

The remaining regions break down as follows:

• Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): 515 aircraft
• Latin America: 165 aircraft
• The Middle East: 125 aircraft
• Africa: 90 aircraft

The size mix also matters for manufacturers and conversion shops. Airbus projects 1,140 single-aisle freighters, 860 mid-size widebodies and 670 large widebodies. The conversion-heavy split has direct consequences: the market rewards freighter conversion lines — a segment where specialist MRO providers and lessors compete — as much as OEM production slots.

What drives the growth?

Airbus grounds its forecast in trade and traffic projections. "With long-term trade projected to expand at a 2.9% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), global air cargo traffic is forecasted to grow at 3.2% annually over the next two decades," the company said.

That growth, Airbus argues, has survived a difficult operating environment. "Despite high fuel prices, ongoing geopolitical disruptions, and supply chain constraints, air freight has demonstrated remarkable resilience," the manufacturer said.

Asia-Pacific will remain the leading region for international air cargo traffic. Routes from Asia-Pacific to North America form the largest market, growing at 3.8% annually, followed by routes to Europe.

Why does cargo capacity matter economically?

What does this change for airlines and freight forwarders? The answer lies in the value density of what flies. "While air cargo accounts for less than 1% of global trade volume by weight, it carries more than 30% of total trade by value, proving it to be a vital mode of transport for goods requiring the quickest routes to market," Airbus said.

The composition of that value is shifting toward technology. "In the last three years, computers and high-technology goods in air cargo have doubled in value, reaching 15% in 2026," Airbus noted. "Other drivers include e-commerce and air cargo seen as an alternative to shipping for some goods."

The competitive backdrop

The forecast lands as Airbus itself pushes deeper into the cargo market. Its A350F freighter completed its maiden flight in the run-up to the publication, positioning the manufacturer to contest the large-widebody freighter segment where Boeing has long held the advantage with converted and factory-built 767s and 777s.

As with any OEM market outlook, the figures serve a commercial purpose: they frame the sales case for Airbus's own freighter products. Still, the projections give operators, lessors and conversion specialists a concrete benchmark. If the 3.2% traffic growth materializes, the roughly 1,090 incremental freighters will shape belly-capacity decisions, conversion-slot availability and fleet planning across the industry well into the 2040s.

The next test of the forecast will come in the delivery data — whether new-build freighter output and conversion throughput over the coming years track toward the 2,670-aircraft requirement Airbus now projects.