Airfreight rates rise 26% above 2025 as Asia-Pacific leads

Global airfreight rates rose between 4% and 4.7% over the past fortnight, putting them 26% above the same period in 2025, according to the latest TAC-compiled Baltic Air Freight Index and WorldACD data.

The move has pushed the index above the highs recorded during the run-up to Thanksgiving and Christmas over the previous two peak seasons. TAC attributes part of the climb to jet fuel, which IATA says has more than doubled year on year, rising 113%.

Conflict-related disruption in Europe and the Middle East has created another floor under prices, TAC says, with carriers unwilling to fall below it in a rush for volume. The industry is entering its busiest period of the year even as global cargo demand eases toward the traditional end-of-summer lull.

That mix raises the cost of moving freight without offering the simplest explanation for higher rates. Fuel has surged, and operational disruption has made the market less forgiving, but global volumes are falling rather than climbing in the near term.

For the 12-18 October reporting window, WorldACD recorded both chargeable weight and available capacity up 2% week on week. Carriers had expanded freighter operations after two consecutive weeks of reductions. The index therefore did not rise against a shrinking freighter base; pricing strength came as airlines put capacity back into the market.

Which trade lanes are driving the increase?

Asia-Pacific is the clear leader. Export volumes to the US rose 10% week on week, while Asia-Pacific-Europe traffic climbed 13% after the weekly recovery from China’s Golden Week holiday. On the same weekly measure, Hong Kong-US volumes jumped 27%, and mainland China-US traffic rose 18%.

The annual picture is stronger still: Asia-Pacific volumes to the US were 14% higher than a year earlier. WorldACD says that performance helped drive rates on the trade up 41% year on year and 6% week on week.

Global rates were 30% higher than in 2025, but that average hides a split market. Asia-Europe pricing managed only a 1% week-on-week increase, even though Asia-Pacific-Europe volumes remained about 16% below the same point last year.

WorldACD partly attributes the European weakness to EU measures aimed at curbing low-value ecommerce imports. Its assessment is that the rate environment is “not being driven by a uniform increase in global demand.” The lane’s 13% weekly recovery has not erased its 16% annual decline, leaving Europe the soft spot in the regional split.

Are rates rising because of demand or tighter capacity?

The immediate question for forwarders is whether the gains reflect underlying demand or tighter capacity on selected routes. Asia-Pacific’s gains in US- and Europe-bound volumes show real traffic growth, but the 2% rise in available capacity shows that the price move cannot be attributed to an industry-wide shortage of freighters. Route-level constraints may still matter.

Fuel adds a third force. A 113% year-on-year increase in jet-fuel prices raises airline operating costs and gives carriers a reason to resist lower yields. TAC says conflict-related disruption is creating a rate floor, and carriers are not prepared to sink beneath it just to win volume.

The cost, capacity and network effects are therefore uneven. Asia-Pacific-US freight is moving more, and its rates are rising much faster than the global average. Asia-Pacific-Europe has recovered from the Golden Week lull but remains down year on year, while measures restricting low-value ecommerce imports cloud the outlook for regional trade.

For carriers, the near-term calculation is whether added freighter capacity can absorb the approaching year-end peak without giving up yields while the index remains above the last two seasonal highs. For forwarders, the question is more immediate: distinguish demand-led pricing from fuel and disruption effects.

The 2% weekly increase in available capacity is an important counterweight to the rate surge. It shows that airlines have restored freighter operations after two weeks of cuts rather than leaving the market with fewer freighters.

If traffic continues to build, that response could eventually temper rates. If demand fades, the carrier decision to hold a floor becomes the stronger influence.

As carriers and forwarders prepare for the traditional year-end peak, the next test is whether Asia-Pacific’s volume gains persist or restored capacity catches up, because either path will determine whether the index holds above its last two seasonal peaks.