DHL, FedEx and UPS Now Carry Over Half of Global Air Cargo

DHL, FedEx and UPS together move more than half of all international air cargo tonnage, according to figures DHL published alongside its Q2 2026 results. That concentration, set against IATA's forecast of 71.6 million tonnes for airlines in 2026, means three integrator networks now control the majority share of a market that was fragmented a generation ago.

The financials quantify the shift. DHL Group reported Q2 2026 revenue of €22.4 billion, up 13% year on year. Group EBIT rose 30% to €1,858 million and net profit grew 24%. The express division drove the performance: DHL Express revenue climbed 21.5% to €7,132 million, while Express EBIT jumped 64.3% to €1,200 million.

What does the earnings gap mean?

EBIT rising 64.3% on revenue growth of 21.5% signals pricing power outrunning costs. DHL is candid about the mechanism. Air cargo capacity constraints generated roughly €150 million in positive earnings for DHL Express in the quarter. Belly-hold space is scarce and freighter slots are hard to secure, so shippers pay premium rates — and carriers with owned or contracted lift capture them.

First-half figures reinforce the trend. DHL Express posted H1 EBIT of €1,999 million, up 43.5%, at a 15.2% margin. Time-definite international daily weight grew 3.7% against the prior-year period.

FreightWaves reported that group operating margin rose one point to 8.3%, with the full-year EBIT forecast lifted to $7.43 billion. Group cash flow jumped 73% to $655 million in Q2. DHL did not say how long constrained capacity will persist, and the €150 million benefit depends on it.

The group also captures value downstream. DHL Global Forwarding grew H1 air freight volumes 5.5%, led by Asia and Latin America lanes, with Q2 EBIT of €240 million, up 21.9%. DHL Supply Chain revenue climbed 7.7% to €9,223 million in H1. DHL eCommerce struck a strategic partnership with CTT Group covering parcel logistics in Portugal and Spain.

Which hub now leads the world?

The infrastructure picture matches the financial one. DePaul University's Chaddick Institute found that UPS's Louisville Muhammad Ali International hub now leads all express cargo hubs globally in daily flights and tonnage capacity, displacing FedEx's Memphis operation.

The numbers are not close on flights. Louisville averaged 202.3 peak-day flights against Memphis's 164.7, and held 33.4% greater tonnage capacity on peak days.

Joseph Schwieterman, lead author of the Global Cargo Hub Review, cited by Air Cargo News, said: "In conversations about express air cargo hubs, people often immediately think of FedEx's Memphis hub, but UPS's Louisville hub has elbowed its way to the top."

Hub capacity sets the physical limit on volume a network can absorb. If UPS leads on that measure, it can grow share without proportionate new investment. The competitive balance between the two largest US integrators is shifting at the infrastructure level, not only the financial one.

What does this change for airlines and forwarders?

Passenger airlines selling belly capacity face a market shaped by integrators with their own aircraft, ground networks and customer relationships. Tight capacity supports yields today, but it erodes airlines' structural leverage over long-term freight pricing.

For independent forwarders the squeeze is direct. DHL Global Forwarding's 5.5% volume growth is volume that bypassed third-party intermediaries, and the channel forwarders occupy narrows as integrators extend their own forwarding arms.

E-commerce shippers sit at the end of these flows. The integrators now span air trunk haul through last-mile delivery — precisely the terrain online retailers depend on.

Stat Times reports that airlines intend to commit $4.5 billion to Sustainable Aviation Fuel in 2026, per IATA — a signal that passenger carriers are betting on cost structure and regulatory advantage rather than contesting freight share directly. Whether that suffices against networks holding half the tonnage and the largest hubs remains unresolved.