Ethiopian Airlines must decide within the next month how to allocate an order for 25 aircraft, and the choice, according to a report by Borkena, has narrowed to a three-way contest.

Africa's largest carrier by fleet size and network reach faces what the report characterizes as a high-stakes trilemma: three competing options for the 25-aircraft commitment, with a decision due next month. The outcome will shape the airline's capacity trajectory across its long-haul network, which spans more international destinations in Africa than any other operator on the continent and includes an expanding cargo operation.

The report does not identify the specific airframers or aircraft types in contention, and Ethiopian Airlines has not publicly detailed the candidates. The airline's recent fleet strategy, however, offers context for the scale of the decision.

A 25-unit order sits well within the carrier's established pattern of block commitments. Ethiopian has historically combined Airbus and Boeing widebodies — A350s alongside 787s and 777s — while building a single-aisle fleet anchored on the 737 family and, more recently, the 737 MAX following its return to service. De Havilland Canada Dash 8-400s serve the regional network.

For manufacturers, the stakes are straightforward. Ethiopian functions as a launch customer and early operator whose decisions carry weight across African aviation. The airline took early delivery positions on the A350 and has served as a reference operator for new configurations. A 25-aircraft commitment from Addis Ababa represents not only the airframes themselves but influence over subsequent continental orders, where Ethiopian competes directly with carriers such as Kenya Airways, RwandAir and EgyptAir.

The timing adds pressure. Delivery slots for both major widebody programs remain constrained deep into the decade, and a decision delayed past next month could push first deliveries further out. The airline has linked fleet growth to its Vision 2035 strategy, which targets a substantial expansion of the fleet and network by the middle of the next decade.

Cost, financing terms and delivery timing will weigh on the outcome alongside the aircraft types themselves. Ethiopian has leveraged its balance sheet and state backing to secure favorable acquisition terms historically, and a 25-unit block gives it negotiating leverage across purchase price, maintenance packages and training commitments.

The report frames the decision as a trilemma rather than a simple head-to-head, suggesting three distinct paths — potentially spanning different manufacturers, aircraft sizes or a split between passenger and freighter capacity. Ethiopian's cargo arm, the largest cargo operator in Africa, has been a consistent growth driver and could factor into the mix.

What remains certain is the deadline. A decision lands next month, and with it a signal about where Africa's largest airline plans to place its next decade of capacity growth.