The European Union's aviation fuel sector faces a growing risk of feedstock shortages that could push refiners and fuel suppliers toward Chinese imports, according to analysis from UkrAgroConsult, a Ukrainian agricultural commodities consultancy.

The warning centres on the inputs used to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), the blending of which is mandated in Europe under the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation regulation. SAF feedstocks include used cooking oil (UCO — waste vegetable oil collected from restaurants and food processors), animal fats, and various vegetable oils. Shortfalls in regional supply, UkrAgroConsult's analysis suggests, would leave European refiners exposed to imports from China, which has built substantial refining capacity for several key feedstock categories.

Why does this matter now?

European SAF demand is rising under binding mandates. ReFuelEU Aviation requires fuel suppliers to blend an increasing share of SAF into the jet fuel supplied at EU airports, starting at 2% in 2025 and reaching 6% by 2030. That obligation is colliding with constraints on feedstock availability within Europe, where collection and processing infrastructure for UCO and tallow has not scaled at the same pace as mandated demand.

China, by contrast, has invested heavily in collection networks and refining capacity to convert used cooking oil into a feedstock grade suitable for SAF production. European SAF producers have historically bought from a mix of regional and Asian suppliers, but tightening regional supply has pushed more purchasing toward Chinese processors.

What changes for airlines and operators?

For airlines, the practical question is whether the mandated SAF share can be met without significant cost increases or supply interruptions. If European refiners cannot secure enough feedstock, SAF prices will rise and the cost will pass through to airline fuel bills. Carriers may also face narrower options when purchasing SAF certificates — tradeable compliance units proving that a given volume of sustainable fuel has been placed on the market — or physical blends.

For policymakers, the dependency concern is strategic. Europe has spent years trying to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains in sectors ranging from rare earths to battery materials. Becoming structurally dependent on China for SAF feedstocks would undermine that goal in a sector where the EU has set binding decarbonisation targets.

How should the data be read?

UkrAgroConsult's analysis draws on agricultural commodity tracking rather than direct aviation industry data. Its assessment rests on production estimates for vegetable oils, UCO collection rates, and trade flows. The consultancy has a track record in Black Sea agricultural markets but is not a primary source for European jet fuel data. European refiners, biofuel producers, and groups such as the International Air Transport Association (IATA) publish their own supply assessments that may frame the picture differently.

The headline risk — import dependency — is also not new. European industry has flagged feedstock availability as a constraint since the ReFuelEU timetable was finalised. What UkrAgroConsult's analysis adds is the agricultural-trade perspective: Chinese processors have absorbed feedstock volumes that might otherwise have moved to European buyers.

What happens next?

Whether the supply gap closes through expanded European collection infrastructure, imports from non-Chinese sources, or a revision of the mandate timeline will determine whether Europe meets its SAF targets or finds itself structurally dependent on a single supplier for the inputs that make those targets achievable. The European Commission is expected to monitor feedstock supply as the mandate takes effect in 2025, and the early signals from agricultural markets suggest the dependency concern is already material rather than theoretical.