International air cargo demand among Asia Pacific carriers grew just 1.1% year on year in August, as the end of the European Union's de minimis exemption on 1 July cut e-commerce parcel volumes heading to Europe.

Preliminary traffic figures from the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA), measured in freight tonne kilometres, show a clear deceleration through the summer. Growth ran at 4.1% in April, 2.5% in May and 3.2% in June. July and August both recorded 1.1% — the two weakest months since the EU began imposing charges on small parcels.

The AAPA said that "air cargo markets continued to benefit from rising export activity and brisk demand for AI-related goods, although e-commerce shipments to Europe showed some weakness following the introduction of charges on small parcels".

Offered freight capacity expanded by 1.6% in August. With capacity growth outpacing demand, the average international freight load factor slipped 0.3 percentage points to 59.3% for the month.

The cumulative picture remains stronger. AAPA director general Wong Hong said international "air cargo demand rose by a strong 5.5%" over the first eight months of the year, driven by export activity and shipments tied to artificial intelligence supply chains — semiconductors, servers and data-centre equipment that have anchored freight growth across the region for much of the past year.

The cost side is less favourable. Hong noted that elevated jet fuel prices, airspace restrictions and weaker Asian currencies are raising costs, leaving airlines facing profitability challenges. Geopolitical developments and shifting trade policies add further uncertainty.

The regulatory shift behind the slowdown matters for network planning. The EU's removal of the de minimis exemption — which had allowed low-value parcels to enter without duties — directly targets the e-commerce flows from Chinese and broader Asian marketplaces that have filled belly hold and freighter capacity on Europe-bound lanes since 2023. Carriers that built capacity around that traffic now face softer yields and load factors on those routes, while AI-related goods, concentrated on transpacific and intra-Asian lanes, only partially offset the loss.

The August load factor of 59.3% leaves room for carriers to trim capacity if the e-commerce weakness persists into the fourth-quarter peak season. A capacity decision taken now will determine whether the 5.5% eight-month growth figure holds through year-end or slides toward the 1% range recorded in July and August.

Hong said regional economic growth and trade activity should continue to support air cargo demand "although growth is likely to remain uneven across markets" — an assessment that puts the burden on carriers to match capacity to divergent lane-level trends rather than rely on regional averages.