ITA Airways targets 2026 operating profit as fuel costs double

ITA Airways is targeting a "small" operating profit to close 2026, with profit again forecast for 2027, despite fuel costs that have doubled for the carrier this year. Chief executive Joerg Eberhart set out the timeline in an interview with the Italian national newspaper Corriere della Sera, framing the period as a transformational phase for the Lufthansa-backed flag carrier.

The profit guidance arrives against a backdrop of sharply rising jet fuel prices, an expense that has grown twofold for ITA in a single year. For an airline still consolidating its network, a doubling of its largest variable cost in twelve months is not a rounding error. It is the difference between transformation and stagnation.

Why is ITA asking Brussels to intervene?

Eberhart used the interview to press the European Union for regulatory relief, arguing that European carriers face structural disadvantages against competitors from outside the bloc. His complaint has two parts.

"The situation certainly justifies a joint request to Brussels to create a level playing field. We cannot be at a disadvantage as European companies compared with those coming from outside. That is the first step. The second is that the taxes we pay must be available to support the sector in an emergency. It is not acceptable that we end up financing part of the infrastructure outside the sector," Eberhart told Corriere della Sera.

The remarks align ITA with a wider chorus of European carriers questioning the region's carbon and taxation burden relative to Gulf and Asian rivals. Whether Brussels listens is another matter. It has not so far.

Where will the network grow?

The carrier is preparing to expand its South American presence, with Caracas and Lima identified as target destinations. The Lima plan positions ITA against Emirates, which has been reported to be considering Peru service via Milan. A Gulf carrier routing South American traffic through a Italian gateway is precisely the competitive asymmetry Eberhart complains about. ITA intends to contest it directly.

Further ahead, the map turns east. Asked about plans for 2028 and 2029, Eberhart confirmed ITA is studying Asia after consolidating its transatlantic network.

"We are looking at Asia. When you build a long-haul network, one part has to go west and the other east, in order to achieve a certain productivity from the aircraft," he said.

The logic is fleet arithmetic, not ambition. Long-haul aircraft earn their keep only when they are airborne on productive sectors, and a network balanced across the Atlantic and Asia raises utilisation accordingly. ITA's Rome hub sits between the two, which is the geographic case for the strategy in a single sentence.

What changes on the payroll and in the share register?

On staffing, Eberhart disclosed a plan for 226 voluntary exits alongside 400 new hires, producing a net personnel gain of 174. The carrier is thus shrinking some functions while growing others, a signature of the transformation he describes. The numbers are modest for a national flag carrier, which suggests the exercise is restructuring rather than expansion.

The ownership picture is also moving. Lufthansa, which already runs ITA alongside Italy's Economy Ministry, is targeting an increase in its stake to 90 percent, according to Corriere della Sera. The German group has separately agreed with the Portuguese government to acquire a significant stake in TAP Air Portugal. consolidation of Southern European flag carriers under one Frankfurt-based group is proceeding on schedule.

Eberhart also noted that ITA's third quarter "went well," without disclosing figures. A chief executive describing results in two words is a signal worth noting; the absence of numbers is its own data point.

What happens next?

The immediate tests are threefold: whether the fuel-price headwind eases before 2026, whether Brussels offers any concession on carbon costs or tax recycling, and whether the Caracas and Lima routes can be launched against an established Gulf competitor. ITA has set its profit target. The variables deciding it sit mostly outside Rome.