Pakistan barred Taiwanese carriers, then restored overflight rights

James Calloway

Pakistan restored overflight access for China Airlines and EVA Air within hours of last week’s brief closure, with permissions valid through March 27, 2027.

The reversal ended the immediate disruption. Yet it did not explain how an unannounced restriction arose or why officials reversed it so quickly.

How large was the disruption?

Flight-tracking data cited by Bloomberg showed both carriers avoiding Pakistani airspace from October 25.

• At least 12 Asia-Europe flights rerouted over Russia.
• Other services took longer southern routes.
• Restored permissions ran through March 27, 2027, the end of the regular winter aviation season.

The diversions lengthened flight times for affected services. They also turned an aviation decision into a test of regional diplomatic leverage.

The reversal ended the immediate disruption, but the missing formal notice leaves airlines without a durable basis for judging whether the restriction could return.

That uncertainty matters more than the closure’s short duration. Carriers can adapt to published rules, not undocumented decisions.

What did Islamabad and Beijing say?

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, who also oversees aviation, cited the One China policy to Bloomberg. “We have permitted only Chinese airlines to fly over Pakistan,” he said.

Within hours, Pakistan’s Civil Aviation Authority restored both carriers’ permissions.

Pakistan’s newspaper Dawn reported that authorities issued no formal notice, leaving questions about how the ban occurred, how it was decided and why it was reversed.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said the One China principle was widely accepted internationally. He said Taiwanese residents faced no obstacles to international travel.

Guo did not say whether Beijing had requested or influenced the restriction.

Taiwanese officials suspect Chinese involvement. No evidence shows Beijing directly requested the ban.

What does this change for airlines and passengers?

Pakistan restored the permission, so the immediate operating constraint ended. The current approval still expires on March 27, 2027.

Taiwan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Chen Ming-chi condemned the action. He called Chinese leverage over Global South states a bad practice if Beijing were involved. “We are afraid that this might be a practice that spreads to other Global South countries,” he said, warning that restrictions could threaten passenger safety and disrupt global supply chains.

The available reporting gives no fuel bill, fare impact or quantified capacity loss, leaving the commercial cost unmeasured despite reroutes that lengthened flight time for affected services.

The practical answer is limited. Flights can use Pakistan again; operators cannot yet treat the episode as settled policy.

If other governments copy the measure, carriers face a less predictable network. Each closure removes an overflight option; longer diversions could threaten passenger safety or disrupt supply chains.

Why does the episode matter to Beijing?

Pakistan is one of China’s closest strategic partners. Both governments characterize the relationship as one of iron brothers.

China supplied 80% of Pakistan’s major arms imports. Islamabad has received roughly $25 billion in Chinese investment through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a flagship Beijing Belt and Road initiative.

An unnamed Western diplomat cited by Nikkei Asia suggested Islamabad may have sought to reassure Beijing about its Taiwan position while relations with Washington improved.

That remains an interpretation, not an established motive. The lack of a formal aviation notice leaves the evidence incomplete.

Guo offered principle rather than an operational account. The incident therefore leaves a diplomatic signal without a documented aviation process.

Could other governments copy the restriction?

In April, Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar withdrew overflight permissions for Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s planned trip to Eswatini, Taiwan’s only diplomatic ally in Africa.

Taiwan accused Beijing of pressing the three governments. China denied doing so.

Wang Zaixi, a former vice chairman of China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits, told the party-run Beijing Daily that more countries would follow such measures.

Political commentator Chen Zhengwei wrote in Hong Kong 01. He noted that mainland China allows Taiwanese commercial airlines to use its airspace. Pakistan’s decision showed how governments could enforce the One China principle more aggressively. Beijing itself allowed Taiwanese airlines to use its airspace.

The self-media account Strong Country Perspective called the reversal a calculated diplomatic success. It said Pakistan showed loyalty to China, established a precedent and avoided lasting disruption.

The account said Pakistan had secured prestige, made the gesture and reduced the risk of serious damage to zero.

That is commentary, not an aviation finding. The documented facts are the closure, the reversal and the missing notice.

By March 27, 2027, the key question will be whether Pakistan replaces an undocumented reversal with a durable overflight policy. Until then, carriers have restored access but no settled guarantee.