Air freight has shifted from a contingency option to an embedded element of shippers' supply chain planning since Covid, according to Global Shippers Forum director James Hookham — but he warned that new rules on direct air waybills could add complexity for cargo customers.

Speaking at the Aviation Connect conference in Athens this week, Hookham said the change in how shippers treat air freight is structural rather than temporary. Air cargo has traditionally been regarded as "Plan B" by shippers, he explained, a mode to be called upon only when sea or land options failed. Since the pandemic disrupted global logistics, that calculus has changed, and air capacity now features in routine supply chain planning rather than exceptional circumstances.

The timing of his remarks matters. With post-peak season holidays approaching, Hookham noted, shippers are more likely to turn to air freight to protect delivery schedules — reinforcing the modal shift he described at the Athens event.

What is driving the shift?

Hookham's assessment reflects how shipper behaviour evolved through the supply chain shocks of recent years. Where air freight once served as insurance against disruption, shippers now build it into their planning assumptions from the outset. That change carries cost implications: air freight commands a significant premium over ocean rates, so its integration into baseline planning signals that shippers place higher value on reliability and speed than they did before the pandemic.

For airlines and freighter operators, the trend supports sustained cargo demand rather than the boom-and-bust pattern the sector historically followed. For shippers, it means air capacity is treated as a managed component of network design rather than an emergency lever.

Why do waybill changes worry shippers?

The second half of Hookham's warning concerns documentation. New rules on direct air waybills — the contract between shipper and carrier — could introduce complexity into cargo transactions, he cautioned.

The air waybill governs the terms of carriage, and any change to how it is issued or regulated touches every shipment moving under it. For large shippers moving high volumes across multiple carriers and routes, even procedural adjustments can create friction in booking, documentation and liability chains. Hookham's concern signals that the regulatory detail, not the modal shift itself, may be the next battleground between shippers and the air cargo industry.

What comes next?

The Global Shippers Forum, which represents cargo customers rather than carriers, has positioned itself as a watchdog on issues that affect shipper costs and administrative burden. Hookham's Athens remarks suggest the forum will scrutinise how the waybill rules are implemented and what they mean for documentation workflows.

As the post-peak holiday period approaches, the test will be whether the deeper integration of air freight into shipper planning holds once seasonal pressure eases — and whether the new waybill rules complicate, or streamline, the transactions that underpin it.