Spot airfreight rates averaged $3.10/kg in September, up 27% year-on-year and 2% above August, as shippers signed 60% of new Q3 2026 contracts for three months or less to escape fixed annual pricing.

Demand grew 6% year-on-year, matching August's pace and the 5% rise recorded in July. Capacity expanded just 2%, lifting Xeneta's dynamic load factor two percentage points to 62%.

The contract structure is the clearest evidence yet of how carriers and freight buyers are repricing risk across the network.

Why are shippers avoiding annual contracts?

Three-month deals now account for 42% of new agreements, up from 16% in Q3 2025. Twelve-month contracts dropped from 40% to 25% over the same period. Deals longer than a year made up just 3% of new business.

"A one-year fixed rate deal doesn't fit the current conditions," said Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta's chief airfreight officer.

Shippers prefer floating arrangements with a base rate indexed to market moves, plus terms and conditions that allow renegotiation when conditions shift.

"There remains a lot of instability and that's making it almost impossible for shippers to make long-term capacity deals without having T&Cs in place to deal with these volatile conditions," van de Wouw said.

What is reshaping China-Europe and China-US flows?

China's low-value and e-commerce exports to Europe fell 40% year-on-year in August, following the EU's €3 customs duty on individual items effective 1 July. Volumes had already dropped 25% in July.

The data come from Xeneta and Trade and Transport Group analysis of China Customs figures. China-US e-commerce exports moved the other way, climbing 17% YoY in August as the trade recovered from the US de minimis threshold removal in 2025.

China-Western Europe spot rates rose 10% month-on-month in September to $4.26/kg, reversing declines from July and August. Xeneta tied part of the rebound to stronger outbound China demand ahead of Golden Week.

Northeast Asia-Europe climbed 5% to $4.74/kg. Northeast Asia-North America rose 5% to $6.03/kg. Southeast Asia-Europe gained 3% as inventory positioning drew volumes across Asia.

Transatlantic rates strengthened in both directions month-on-month, with Europe-North America up 2% and North America-Europe up 4%. The Europe-North America corridor remains 20% below late-February levels, though the gap narrowed from 25% in August as summer belly capacity leaves the market.

How is Middle East disruption setting the rate floor?

By week 39 (21-27 September), rates ran 91% higher from South Asia and 80% higher from Europe than before the Iran war escalated.

Northeast Asia-North America and Southeast Asia-North America corridors sat 34% and 29% above late-February levels, supported by recovering e-commerce traffic and shipments tied to AI infrastructure.

What does Q4 hold?

Xeneta forecasts a muted peak season absent fresh ocean freight disruption. Persistent schedule unreliability, renewed Red Sea friction and port congestion have pushed some Asia-US West Coast ocean rates toward pandemic-era levels.

"What will happen in Q4 is too early to call, but the indicators currently point towards a muted final quarter of the year," van de Wouw said. "We are not yet seeing that in the September data. But it is the factor we are watching most closely."

Higher jet fuel costs compound the pressure on air cargo. Brent crude briefly traded above $100 a barrel in early September amid Middle East tensions.

If ocean costs continue to climb, the gap with airfreight narrows and more cargo shifts to widebody passenger bellies in the final weeks of 2026.