Africa Leads 68% of CORSIA-Eligible Projects and Programmes

By Grace Kim

Sylvera estimates airlines will need 193 million to 220 million carbon credits for CORSIA’s first-phase obligations in 2024-2026, but only around 43 million have been tagged as eligible in registries. That is 19% to 22% of anticipated demand—less than one-quarter.

Africa nevertheless leads the eligible-credit pipeline: its countries account for 17 of the 25 distinct projects and programmes with CORSIA-eligible credits, a 68% global share. The continent also accounts for 80 of 119 published Letters of Authorization, which enable international trading and use toward compliance.

What does CORSIA require of airlines?

Established by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) requires airlines to offset growth in emissions from covered international flights through eligible credits.

For airline budgets and network plans, the limited eligible pool creates procurement exposure, while growth in covered traffic enlarges the obligation to offset emissions. Sylvera does not quantify credit prices, ticket effects or capacity changes, so the analysis supports no stronger cost claim.

Hundreds of millions of additional credits may be eligible, according to Sylvera, but host-country authorisation and safeguards against double counting must come first. With only about 43 million credits tagged worldwide, paper eligibility is not yet usable compliance supply.

Where does Africa lead?

Sylvera’s analysis finds African governments moving quickly to establish regulatory frameworks for trading under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement. Thirty-four of the 124 bilateral Article 6.2 agreements and memoranda of understanding signed globally involve African countries, with Ghana leading seller countries by number signed.

Madagascar ranks first worldwide with 44 published authorisations, followed by Nigeria and Rwanda. Africa’s 80 authorisations represent about 67% of the global total, a marked contrast with the continent’s just-over-2% share of projects registered under the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism, the predecessor to current arrangements.

Carmen Alvarez Campo, International Policy Lead at Sylvera, said: “Africa is rapidly becoming one of the most important players in international carbon markets. Governments are establishing the frameworks needed to unlock investment, creating opportunities to help meet growing demand for carbon credits.”

Alvarez Campo added: “With airlines facing substantial offsetting obligations and eligible supply remaining limited, Africa has a significant opportunity to help close the gap. The priority now is translating regulatory progress into investment and credible supply, supported by the transparency and robust accounting needed to build market confidence.”

Can authorisations become deliverable supply?

Africa’s 80 authorisations demonstrate regulatory readiness, but they do not guarantee corresponding CORSIA-tagged deliveries. Sylvera identifies national greenhouse gas inventories, reporting systems and consistent accounting practices as remaining challenges. Together, those gaps can delay the investment and credible reduction or removal projects that the authorisations are intended to unlock.

An authorisation is not a credit, and a project is not yet a delivered offset. Sylvera’s priority is translation: regulatory progress must become investment and credible supply, supported by transparent accounting and double-counting safeguards. With demand set at 193-220 million credits, the 80 authorisations cannot yet be read as relief for first-phase compliance.

What must COP31 unlock?

COP31 takes place in Antalya, Türkiye, from 9 to 20 November, with international carbon-market implementation listed as a key focus. The agenda fits Africa’s substantial regulatory position and the investment opportunity identified by Sylvera.

International cooperation could strengthen implementation, address national inventory and accounting barriers, and accelerate investment in credible reduction and removal projects across the continent. The available supply remains the harder constraint: demand for 193-220 million credits in 2024-2026 far exceeds the roughly 43 million tagged worldwide.

At COP31, the practical test is whether Africa’s 80 authorisations become financed, transparent and CORSIA-tagged supply at scale. Without stronger inventories, reporting and consistent accounting, the 19%-22% coverage ratio is unlikely to improve quickly.