Trade in AI-enabling goods accounted for 76% of global goods trade growth in the first quarter of 2026, up from 42% for all of 2025, according to WTO and OECD analysis cited in the latest DHL Globalisation Tracker, produced with NYU's Stern School of Business.

The report attributes the surge to demand for the inputs of AI infrastructure — semiconductors and data-transmission equipment — flows that have consumed air cargo capacity out of Asia and, in DHL's assessment, shielded global trade from tariffs and geopolitical shocks.

"The biggest story in global trade right now is AI – not tariffs," said John Pearson, chief executive of DHL Express. "Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time."

Pearson added: "DHL connects the businesses and markets behind these complex supply chains. Whenever innovation creates new trade flows, our global network helps keep them moving."

How fast did trade actually grow?

Global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year period in the past 15 years, with the exception of the post-Covid rebound, the report found.

East Asia and the Pacific led all regions. Trade values rose 24% in the first five months of 2026 versus the same period a year earlier. Europe followed at 12%, with Sub-Saharan Africa at 11%.

The region also became more self-contained: the share of East Asia-Pacific trade conducted within the region rose from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026, a shift the report links to Asian supply chains serving the AI build-out.

The pattern is visible in belly and freighter decks. Air cargo capacity out of Southeast Asia is now dominated by AI and semiconductor shipments rather than e-commerce, according to separate analysis by forwarder Dimerco.

What about tariffs and the Hormuz closure?

The AI boom outweighed the shocks, but did not erase them. The Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supply chains, prompting airlines to suspend cargo flights to the region — some of which have yet to return.

The damage stayed concentrated. Economies dependent on the Strait bore the worst of it: trade values fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates in the first five months of 2026 year on year.

US tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, yet their global effect proved limited. The US accounted for only 13% of world imports in recent years, and roughly half of those imports were exempt from the tariff increases as of August. Most countries avoided broad retaliation, instead pursuing new trade agreements to secure alternative market access.

What is the outlook through 2029?

The Globalisation Tracker projects global goods trade to expand by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029 — well above the 2.7% rate recorded over the previous decade.

"The surprise is not only that global trade kept growing through new tariffs and the Iran war," said Prof. Steven A. Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern's Center for the Future of Management. "The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock."

Altman said the AI trade boom underscores demand for goods and services "that can only be provided efficiently when specialised producers work together across countries," and shows how companies adapt to keep trade moving through disruptions and policy shifts.

For air cargo operators, the implication is a demand base tied to data-centre build schedules rather than consumer e-commerce cycles — with capacity out of Asia already stretched by semiconductor and networking-equipment shipments.