Airfreight rates from Hong Kong to North America climbed 31% year on year in September, reaching $7.02 per kilogram on the spot-and-contract blended index published by TAC Index, as the market entered its fourth-quarter peak season against a backdrop of surging jet fuel costs and AI-linked data centre demand.

Rates on the parallel Hong Kong–Europe lane rose to $4.80 per kilogram, up from $4.58 in August and 8.8% higher than a year earlier, according to the data provider's monthly figures.

The widening year-on-year gap between the two corridors reflects two distinct demand drivers. US-bound volumes have benefited from the build-out of AI infrastructure, with hyperscalers pulling in accelerated air shipments of servers, semiconductors and related equipment. Europe-bound tonnage, by contrast, has faced a fresh headwind: the European Union's €3-per-package handling charge for shipments valued below €150, which targets low-value e-commerce flows.

What is driving the September increase?

TAC's index of combined spot and contract rates edged higher across both lanes, with the Hong Kong–North America benchmark ticking from $6.98 per kilogram in August to $7.02 in September. That monthly move looks modest, but the year-on-year comparison captures a market repricing around Middle East-linked jet fuel costs and a structurally tighter capacity backdrop.

Jet fuel prices have more than doubled year on year, a swing that has yet to be fully recovered in headline freight rates.

"Far from keeping pace yet with surging jet fuel prices"

TAC analysts framed the September creep as a precursor rather than the peak. "That sort of jump was not unexpected after rates had been edging up slightly throughout September, but far from keeping pace yet with surging jet fuel prices," the data provider said in a weekly market update, noting that jet fuel has risen more than 100% year on year.

The market has yet to test how much of the fuel shock carriers can recover through general rate increases, peak-season surcharges or contract renegotiation.

How did the early-October Golden Week window play out?

The acceleration showed up in the first days of October, ahead of China's Golden Week holiday from 1 to 7 October. TAC's global Baltic Air Freight Index jumped 5% over the seven days to 5 October, leaving it 25.5% higher than twelve months earlier. The Hong Kong outbound sub-index gained 3% week on week, standing 22.3% above the prior year. Shanghai outbound added 2.2% on the week, up 18.3% year on year.

Which lanes are gaining and which are slipping?

The picture across East Asia is not uniform. TAC reported week-on-week gains out of Japan and Seoul, but declines on lanes from Taiwan. Outbound Southeast Asia split similarly: Vietnam posted gains, with the exception of the Hanoi–Europe corridor, while Bangkok saw rates fall. BAI Spot from India eased slightly over the week, though overall Indian rates remained marginally higher.

What does the EU parcel charge mean for the Asia–Europe lane?

The €3 fee applies to every parcel entering the EU valued under €150, with the levy collected from sellers rather than freight forwarders. The measure is calibrated to curb the cross-border e-commerce flows that platforms such as Shein and Temu built on air shipping. For combination carriers and general-cargo operators, the charge introduces a cost asymmetry that could redirect some e-commerce volumes to surface modes or to non-EU destinations, with knock-on effects on belly-cargo yields for passenger airlines serving Frankfurt, Paris and Amsterdam hubs.

What to watch through the rest of the peak

TAC's data suggest rate momentum is rebuilding rather than peaking, even as the cost base for airlines has been repriced by the jet fuel move. The interplay between AI-driven demand for US capacity and the EU's e-commerce surcharge will shape how much of the fuel-led cost pressure translates into higher contract rates when forwarders renegotiate annual terms in the coming weeks.