A biomass-to-sustainable-aviation-fuel (SAF) pathway could give Canada a workable route to meeting its aviation decarbonisation targets, according to an analysis published by gasworld.

The report positions biomass conversion — turning organic feedstock into jet fuel — as an opportunity rather than a constraint for Canadian aviation. The framing matters for an industry that has struggled to translate national SAF targets into bankable production capacity.

Canada brings two assets to the equation. The first is feedstock: the country's forestry residue, agricultural waste and other organic material give it a raw-material base that few aviation markets can match. The second is policy: federal decarbonisation targets for aviation have created a demand signal that domestic fuel producers have so far met largely through imports.

Biomass-to-SAF conversion covers a family of technologies. Hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) dominate global SAF output today, but the pathway gasworld highlights extends beyond fats and oils into gasification and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis or alcohol-to-jet processes, which can convert solid biomass and waste streams into drop-in jet fuel.

The distinction between what is certified and what is promised is central. ASTM International has approved several SAF production pathways for commercial use, and airlines worldwide have flown millions of gallons of blended fuel. But scaled biomass-based production in Canada remains a project pipeline, not an operating base. The opportunity gasworld identifies depends on projects reaching final investment decisions and clearing commercial hurdles that have delayed similar ventures elsewhere.

For Canadian carriers, the stakes are straightforward. Aviation fuel is the largest single contributor to airline emissions, and SAF — blended with conventional jet fuel at ratios up to 50% under current specifications — is the only near-term lever available. Domestic supply would insulate carriers from import costs and price volatility, while giving them a verifiable path against climate commitments that shareholders and regulators increasingly audit.

The report's timing is relevant. Governments and industry bodies across North America and Europe have set blending mandates and aspirational targets, and supply has repeatedly lagged demand. Canada's feedstock endowment could invert that equation for its own market, provided conversion capacity gets built.

Cost remains the open question. SAF produced from biomass pathways generally carries a premium over conventional Jet A, and the gasworld analysis does not claim otherwise. What it argues is that Canada holds a structural opportunity — the combination of feedstock availability and policy targets — that could support domestic production at a scale sufficient to serve its aviation sector.

Whether that opportunity converts into capacity will depend on the usual variables: capital costs for conversion facilities, feedstock logistics, certification of specific production routes, and offtake agreements from airlines willing to pay the premium. Each of those steps has slowed biomass-to-fuel projects in other jurisdictions.

What the analysis establishes is direction rather than delivery. Biomass is a viable pathway for Canadian SAF, and the country's targets are reachable through it. The gap between that conclusion and operating refineries is where the industry's attention will now turn.