White & Case, the international law firm, has published an analysis asking the question that now sits at the centre of airline decarbonisation planning: can sustainable aviation fuel get off the ground?

The question is not rhetorical. SAF remains the only near-term lever airlines can pull to reduce lifecycle emissions from jet fuel, yet supply covers a fraction of global consumption. The gap between regulatory mandates and available production capacity is the core problem the piece addresses.

For carriers, the stakes are financial as much as environmental. SAF trades at a multiple of conventional Jet A, and blending obligations in the European Union and elsewhere will force airlines to absorb or pass through that premium. Refiners, financiers and governments must decide whether to commit capital to production facilities whose economics depend on policy support that could shift with each political cycle.

The legal dimension is White & Case's angle. Offtake agreements, feedstock contracts, certification pathways and government incentives all carry risks that determine whether announced projects reach final investment decision or stall at the feasibility stage. Each new facility requires years of development before a drop of fuel reaches an airport hydrant.

Airlines have signed a stream of offtake commitments with prospective producers, but contracts signed and fuel delivered are different things. The industry's ability to meet mandates will depend on which projects clear financing, construction and certification hurdles — and on regulators holding to timetables that producers and carriers have priced into their plans.

White & Case's analysis frames the outcome as open. The feedstocks, conversion technologies and policy instruments exist. What remains unproven is whether they can be assembled at the scale and speed the sector's climate commitments assume.

The answer will show up first in blending figures at major hubs, and in the number of projects that move from announcement to steel in the ground.