Central Asia Faces $33 Billion Air Cargo Capacity Gap

Central Asia needs an estimated $33 billion a year in new infrastructure, and trade flowing through the Middle Corridor could triple by 2030 — but the aircraft capacity to carry the cargo that growth generates is not keeping pace.

That is the warning from Gerhard Coetzee, Vice President Cargo – IMEA at charter broker Chapman Freeborn, speaking at the Central Asia Air Cargo Summit. In his telling, the region's problem is no longer connectivity. It's fit.

"The important point is that cargo demand is increasingly being generated inside Central Asia – rather than simply passing through it," Coetzee said. "Every one of these sectors creates a different type of cargo requirement, and not all of that cargo can move efficiently through a scheduled network."

Mining, energy, infrastructure and manufacturing projects across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are producing heavy, oversized, time-critical shipments that scheduled freight networks were never designed around. China's links to the three countries are strengthening, and European services are developing. More routes, though, don't solve the underlying question: is the right aircraft available for the cargo, the route and the deadline?

When available capacity is not the right capacity

The mismatch shows up most sharply in project cargo. A freighter may have payload to spare, yet the piece won't fit the aircraft type. The route may not exist at the required time. The airport may lack the infrastructure to handle the movement at all.

For large types — the 747F, the 777F, the AN-124 — airport infrastructure and ground handling decide whether a flight is even executable. A 70-tonne transformer or 16-metre pipes need suitable loading equipment, runway capability and specialist handling. Permits and regulatory approvals add another layer. Winter weather and de-icing push both timing and operating cost.

"There is an air cargo network, but it isn't necessarily designed around the cargo that these new industries are generating," Coetzee said.

The cost calculus is unforgiving. A delayed critical component can hold up installation, construction or production, making downtime far more expensive than the spread between scheduled airfreight and a charter.

What does matching the aircraft to the cargo look like?

A Chapman Freeborn energy project illustrates the planning involved. The company was asked to move urgent manufacturing cargo that included 12-metre manifolds, each requiring purpose-built transport frames measuring 12 m × 4 m × 2.4 m.

The operation split across two aircraft. A Boeing 767 carried the smaller pieces; an AN-124 took the oversized manifolds. Both flights landed inside the required timeframes and the cargo reached the project site.

The job ran outside Central Asia, but the lesson transfers directly: the solution has to be built around the cargo, not around whatever aircraft happens to be available.

"Aircraft selection isn't about which aircraft is the biggest. It's about selecting the most efficient aircraft for the mission," Coetzee said.

That can mean splitting a movement between types, or reserving dedicated charter for only the portion of a shipment the scheduled network cannot absorb.

Can charter shift from emergency fix to planning tool?

Coetzee's framing positions charter as a complement to scheduled airfreight, not a replacement. It becomes relevant when the network cannot meet a shipment's weight, dimensions, timing, destination or operational complexity.

The bigger opportunity, he argues, lies earlier in the cycle. For major mining, energy and infrastructure projects, aircraft requirements, airport capability, permits and potential capacity gaps can all be assessed at the planning stage — before a shipment turns urgent and a fixed deadline strips away the options.

That reframes charter from a last-minute response into one of the capacity options a project holds in reserve, giving shippers time to weigh aircraft, routes and handling requirements while choices remain open.

As Central Asia integrates deeper into global supply chains, the measure of success won't be how much air cargo capacity the region holds. It will be whether companies can reach the right capacity, in the right place, at the moment their project demands it.