Central Asia needs roughly $33bn in annual infrastructure investment, and trade volumes through the so-called Middle Corridor are set to triple by 2030 — a combination Chapman Freeborn says is reshaping how charter operators size up capacity in the region.

Speaking at the Central Asia Air Cargo Summit, Gerhard Coetzee, vice president of cargo for Chapman Freeborn's India, Middle East and Africa business, framed the demand surge as qualitatively different from what the region has historically handled.

"The important point is that cargo demand is increasingly being generated inside Central Asia – rather than simply passing through it," Coetzee said.

What cargo segments are driving demand?

Mining, energy, infrastructure and manufacturing sit behind the growth, Coetzee told attendees. Each sector produces a different freight profile. Mining and energy tend to require heavy-haul moves of plant and equipment. Infrastructure projects generate oversized loads tied to construction schedules. Manufacturing adds time-critical components to supply chains that cannot wait for a standard sailing or trucking window.

"Every one of these sectors creates a different type of cargo requirement, and not all of that cargo can move efficiently through a scheduled network," Coetzee said.

Can scheduled capacity handle the volume?

Connectivity to and from Central Asia is improving. Coetzee highlighted expanding China links with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, along with developing scheduled services into Europe. Yet the available lift does not always match the freight on offer.

He outlined three recurring mismatches. An aircraft may carry enough payload but the cargo may be too large for the type. The required route may not operate at the right time of day or week. Or the destination airport may lack the infrastructure to accept the movement.

Coetzee added that a scheduled service may work well for standard freight, but a heavy industrial component moving to a remote destination against a project deadline creates an entirely different requirement.

"There is an air cargo network, but it isn't necessarily designed around the cargo that these new industries are generating," Coetzee said.

Which airports and aircraft types face the biggest constraints?

Loading equipment, runway length and specialist handling for outsized loads cap what airports in the region can accept. Coetzee cited 70-tonne transformers and 16-metre pipes as the freight that exposes the gaps in ground handling. He named Boeing 747s, Boeing 777s and AN-134s as the larger end of the operating envelope.

Permits and regulatory clearances add another layer to operations, while winter weather and de-icing affect both schedule reliability and direct operating cost. Operators must plan for delays at both origin and destination when low temperatures, snow or ice force ground stops or extended turnarounds.

How has disruption in the Middle East reshaped flows?

The demand picture has also been shaped by external events. Carriers have sought alternatives to Middle East hubs this year as conflicts in that region continue, while sources point to Chinese e-commerce platforms routing some US-bound shipments through Central Asia to bypass disrupted corridors. That shift sharpens the case for ad hoc charter capacity on top of the region's industrial-cargo growth.

What comes next for charter operators?

Chapman Freeborn's framing recasts the region's air cargo question. The bottleneck, by Coetzee's account, is not aggregate tonnage but the availability of the right aircraft, in the right place, at the moment a project demands it.

As Central Asia integrates further into global supply chains, that matching problem — rather than capacity totals — is likely to determine which operators capture the next phase of regional growth.