Data centre components accounted for 1.4 million tonnes of annual air cargo and grew 39% year on year between April and November, effectively offsetting weakness in cross-border e-commerce after the US$800 de minimis suspension reshaped US import flows.

The figures, cited by Aevean managing director Marco Bloemen, describe a market now running on two parallel tracks. "We really have two different bases. We have a US slowdown and we have the rest of the world growing," he said. High-tech freight alone added roughly 300,000 tonnes into the US market during the eight-month window.

What drove the volume shock

The US$800 de minimis exemption was suspended for shipments from China and Hong Kong in May 2025, then for all origins that August. UPS chief executive Carol Tomé told investors the tariff increase and elimination of de minimis produced a 34.8% year-on-year drop in average daily volume for May and June 2025, on what she called the company's most profitable trade lane.

E-commerce parcels that previously cleared without duty collapsed at the integrator level, with downstream effects rippling through forwarding desks.

What recovered, and what did not

Volumes have since partially returned. Tomé said in July 2026 that UPS had "returned to year-over-year volume growth on the China-to-US lane," a shift she said began in May. FedEx's annual report shows international export package volume falling through the first nine months of fiscal 2026 before closing the year up 1%.

But the recovery is not what it looks like on a tonnage chart. Patrik Gaehwiler, president and chief executive of JAS USA, framed the two developments as linked. "The removal of de minimis has materially reduced traditional e-commerce volumes into the US," he said. "The more significant constraint today is limited capacity, with high-value, high-priority cargo, particularly cloud, semiconductor and AI-related goods, taking precedence over lower-value shipments."

Why capacity looks tighter than the headline numbers

Estes Forwarding Worldwide reported in February that priority cargo "is booked earlier, protected more aggressively, and often displaces freight with flexible delivery windows." Cut-off times have moved earlier, last-minute availability has shrunk, and capacity that looks adequate on aggregate can vanish for shippers outside the priority categories "without any obvious change in headline data."

Integrators have redrawn their networks around the new mix. Tomé told analysts UPS is "focused on premium, high-quality volume," and has reduced lower-margin Amazon traffic to make room. UPS forwarding revenue rose 8.1% in the second quarter on higher international air freight rates.

The compliance layer underneath

Higher-value shipments carry heavier documentation and tighter tariff exposure. Laurie Arnold, vice president of trade and compliance at JAS USA, said optical character recognition tools now extract data from commercial invoices, bills of lading, certificates of origin and Participating Government Agency documents. "Instead of manually keying large amounts of information, we can focus on reviewing and validating the data for accuracy," she said. "This not only improves productivity but also helps reduce the potential for clerical errors, which is especially valuable in today's rapidly changing regulatory environment."

Automation has limits. "The industry is still far from a completely touchless environment," Arnold added. "Licensed customs brokers and compliance specialists must evaluate the information, apply regulatory knowledge, make informed decisions, and exercise professional judgement throughout the entry process. Technology serves as a powerful tool to support these activities, but it does not replace the need for human oversight and accountability."

What is now permanent

The de minimis suspension has outlasted the tariff regime around it. In February, the United States Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorise the president to impose tariffs, invalidating the 2025 reciprocal duties. Within hours, the administration reimposed a global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act.

De minimis was untouched, resting on separate authority. On 24 June, US Customs and Border Protection codified the suspension into regulation.

The combination — a durable de minimis suspension, technology-led demand growth and tighter capacity allocation — points to a structurally different airfreight market heading into 2027, with priority shippers anchoring belly and freighter capacity while traditional cross-border e-commerce competes for what remains.