WorldACD: Asia rebound offsets cargo declines elsewhere

By Sophie Lindqvist

Global air cargo volumes rose 2% week on week in the seven days to 18 October, according to WorldACD, as Asia-Pacific exports rebounded 9% after the Golden Week holiday. Week-on-week figures compare the latest seven days with the preceding seven days; the overall gain masked reductions from several other regions.

Asia-Pacific drives the rebound

Asia-Pacific tonnage to the US rose 10% from the previous week, while shipments to Europe increased 13%. Growth toward the US came from every Asian origin except Japan; Hong Kong led at 27%, followed by China at 18%.

Measured against the same week a year earlier, Asia-Pacific-to-US volumes were 14% higher. WorldACD attributed that increase to the ongoing strength of artificial intelligence (AI)-related traffic crossing the Pacific.

For Europe, South Korea recorded a 34% weekly increase, ahead of China at 22%, Singapore at 16% and Hong Kong at 11%. Volumes from Vietnam, Japan and Malaysia to Europe fell over the same comparison.

Asia-Pacific-to-Europe volumes remained 16% below the year-earlier level. Hong Kong fell 32%, which WorldACD linked to European Union (EU) moves to curb e-commerce parcel imports; China was down 12% and Vietnam 10%.

South Korea bucked that trend, rising 14% on chargeable weight, the billing measure used to price freight shipments. It was the only origin with a double-digit year-on-year increase in Asia-Pacific cargo to Europe.

Holiday effects pull other origins lower

WorldACD said: “The retreat was most pronounced out of North America (-5%), which can be partly attributed to national holidays in Canada (Thanksgiving) and US (Columbus Day/Indigenous People’s Day).” That explanation placed part of the decline in calendar effects rather than demand alone.

Central and South America chargeable weight fell 4%, partly because of national holiday celebrations on 12 October. The Middle East and South Asia region declined 3%, Europe 2% and Africa 1%.

These results describe a mixed week shaped in part by holiday timing, rather than a synchronized rise across origins. Asia-Pacific supplied the expansion, while every other reported region posted a weekly volume decline.

Rates rise outside Africa

Airfreight rates rose week on week from every region except Africa in the period ending 18 October. The changes were:

• Asia Pacific: up 4%
• Central and South America: up 3%
• Middle East and South Asia: up 2%
• Europe: up 1%
• North America: up 1%
• Africa: down 4%

The rate movements ran alongside rising transpacific tonnage but not with higher volumes from other regions. WorldACD’s data provide no capacity, aircraft-utilization or dispatch-reliability measure, so the increases cannot establish that available freight space tightened.

Europe’s policy costs cloud the peak

WorldACD said the strength of AI-related flows had prompted predictions of a strong peak season ahead in the transpacific arena. The forecast ties peak-season demand to the same technology-related cargo category, rather than to the wider cargo market.

WorldACD framed the Europe outlook differently: “From Asia Pacific to Europe, the outlook is more uncertain in view of the €2 handling fee that will be applied to non-EU e-commerce imports per 1 November.”

WorldACD also said the €2 fee would apply in addition to a flat €3 customs duty per item. The provider said that duty had been in effect since 1 July 2026 for low-value consignments valued up to €150.

Those charges increase the cost of serving European e-commerce flows from Asia. They also pressure the economics of low-value parcel networks, although the report does not quantify how shippers, forwarders or carriers might change their routes and consolidation practices.

What does this change for airlines and shippers?

For airlines, cargo operators and freight forwarders, the near-term signal is firmer transpacific demand and pricing, not a generalized freight boom. Asia-Pacific’s volume and rate gains make that corridor the clearer revenue opportunity, although WorldACD supplies no capacity measure to guide fleet or network allocation.

For European e-commerce sellers and logistics providers, the handling fee and customs duty raise the cost of shipping low-value parcels. A shift in sourcing, consolidation or routing could follow if the charges remain in place; the source does not quantify any such response.

The next test is whether AI-related volumes stay firm through peak season and whether Europe’s new handling charge alters parcel flows. Until then, the 9% Asia-Pacific rebound, 16% year-on-year decline to Europe and 4% Asia-Pacific rate increase describe a sharp regional divergence, not a settled network-wide trend.